Bad News from Kabul

With the Taliban reportedly claiming responsibility for the assassination of former Afghan President Burhanuddin Rabbani, it seems the former is seeking to establish an upper hand in negotiations with the government. That serious high-profile attacks have been carried out recently, including the attack on the American embassy in Kabul last week, seems to underline the Taliban’s determination to prove it retains potency, which presumably can be used as leverage even as national reconciliation talks continue. The conundrum here — of serious concern for India — is the now almost-established principle that Taliban participation is a key prerequisite for reconciliation. Add the fact that despite western ‘good Taliban-bad Taliban’ differentiations, the group itself doesn’t provide any indications of such differences. On the contrary, the Taliban have now eliminated the second-most significant figure from the old anti-Soviet jehad days, who still retained some sway over disparate Afghan groups, after al Qaeda killed the legendary Ahmed Shah Massoud in 2001. This, even as they engage in talks — Rabbani’s killers were ‘trusted’ messengers from the ‘Quetta Shura’ Taliban leadership — reveals their notion of reconciliation.

It is now fait accompli that despite all that, New Delhi’s earlier stance of negating differentiations between the Taliban seems irrelevant. At core, the US would just presumably want to get out the Afghan quagmire after possibly trying to ensure the main points on its brief exit checklist can be said to have been ticked. It was always going to be the case that Indian and US interests would dovetail only up to a point. And India must do its utmost to try and ensure its interests in Afghanistan aren’t sidetracked in the political resolution process. There is much to be sceptical about what will happen in Afghanistan. India must stress continuing international presence in the country, and seek to dislodge the conflation of Taliban and Pushtun interests Pakistan has been attempting. Acting against groups like the Haqqani network should also now be stressed even harder.