2026, year of consumer as queen

Decades of globalisation has exposed consumers to a standardised set of goods and services. 2026 could be the year for them to push back against fracturing trade. Tariff policies that impose additional costs on consumption will lead to reactions that economies may find difficult to manage. Household spending is turning anxious during a truce in the trade war. This could turn downright nervous if hostilities erupt. A deterioration in consumer sentiment in the US will have a domino effect on consumption in Asia's export-oriented economies. Asia's fast-growing consumer markets are critical to the global economic momentum. These markets, particularly China and India, are being supported by expansionary policies that may not be adequate in the event of a full-blown trade war.

Trade negotiations will have to be conducted in a less charged atmosphere than last year. Luckily, realisation has dawned after the first salvos were fired as the prospect of a buyer revolt for all manner of stuff from cars to cellphones forced a dialling down of the mercantilist rhetoric. Global manufacturing companies are taking the hit of tariffs and export controls. However, they will have to eventually pass on to consumers the effects of trade fragmentation. That should serve as a check on the protectionist ambitions of governments.

Consumers are also feeding the technology race with providers trying to make their offerings ever more engaging. Users get to decide the way technology evolves, and through that process impose limits on the clamour against immigration that emerged as 2025's other big threat to globalisation. Tech companies need both global reach and innovation to keep commanding investor interest. They also need access to the global talent pool, and will find their way around obstacles set up by governments to provide jobs to locals. The world economy should be safe so long as the consumer remains queen. It is time for the buyer to exercise sovereignty over globalisation. It's no longer just 'caveat emptor', but a full-blown 'emptor regina'.