Under Fire but Not Broken: How Iran is using Hormuz to push back

Four weeks since Iran came under combined attack from the US and Israel, even its enemies acknowledge that Tehran is holding up considerably well. After more than 10,000 US strikes and over 3,000 Israeli bombs dropped on the Iranian capital, its ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a large number of political and military functionaries killed, much of its military capabilities badly degraded, Iran should no longer appear to be the menace it was made out to be.

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That Tehran is still in the fight is not simply on account of its demonstrated ability to get many of its missiles and drones past Israel's aerial defence systems. It's also that by closing the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, Tehran has managed to ratchet up costs of the war for its adversaries so much that Donald Trump is under pressure from within the US establishment to dial down.


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The Hormuz Strait is a 104-mile stretch of waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, 24 miles at its narrowest and 60 miles at its widest point. Connecting oil-rich coasts of the Persian Gulf, it accounts for 20% of world's oil and gas traffic, nearly a third of the world's fertilisers, and quite a few of other oil-based industrial products. Much of this narrow channel on the Omani side is not deep enough for most vessels, which, thus, necessarily have to pass through territorial waters of Iran.

In normal times, Iran does not come a cropper. But under attack, Iran is refusing passage to any vessel that may either belong to its enemies or their allies, and letting only a few vessels through on a case-to-case basis. There are even unconfirmed reports that IRGC is collecting hefty tolls in Chinese yuan while allowing ships to pass. In doing this, Tehran is not guilty of violating the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) because, like the US, Iran signed the convention but didn't ratify it. Tehran is invoking, instead, the principle of the Montreux Convention of 1936, which allows Turkiye to close the Straits of Dardanelles and Bosphorus to enemy vessels in times of war.

Closure of Hormuz has stopped the supply of oil and associated commodities from Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and much of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, thereby pushing global oil prices past $100 a barrel. It has also brought to grief economies worldwide dependent on gas supply from the Gulf, and promises short- to medium-term dislocation for a broad swathe of economic activities ranging from agriculture to pharmaceuticals, not to speak of a strong inflationary push in consumer prices.

For decades, Iran factored the closure of Hormuz into its defence policy as a measure of area denial in the event of any asymmetric conflict with a far superior military force. Transgressed upon by Israel and the US from February 28, Tehran's retaliatory strikes with missiles and combat drones targeted not only Israelis and Americans but also US assets in the neighbouring Gulf states. Nevertheless, Tehran did not quite have the military capabilities to ward off its enemies. Hence its resorting to the closure of Hormuz.

Medium- to long-term prospective economic repercussions of the blockade aside, the impact on money markets and forthcoming US midterm elections seem to have rattled Trump. Playing with options of further escalation and diplomacy seeking an exit strategy, he seems to be pursuing both. After hinting at occupation of Kharg Island - the principal off-shore embarkation point of Iranian oil exports - in a bid to end the blockade, he seems to be considering occupation of smaller but strategically significant islands (Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Larak), and maybe even of the mountainous coasts overlooking Hormuz.

Iran has been preparing for this predictable US strategy for the last 40       yrs. Americans could still make short work of the Iranian naval forces (mostly speedboats and other smaller vessels), and even their on-shore missile and drone launchers over a period of time. But if Iran lays mines in the Strait's shipping channels, it would take a much longer time to clear them even with the minesweepers, of which the US presently has few.

The mere possibility that a stray mine could blow up a merchant vessel is certain to spike both shipping costs and insurance premium for a long time to come. Hence, experts are warning global oil prices could rise above $150 a barrel unless the conflict is brought to an end quickly.

Hence, diplomacy. Attacked twice within the last year while negotiations were ongoing, Iran refuses to sit down for talks with the US any more. A back channel seems to have been opened through Islamabad, and Trump's reported '15-Point Proposal' has been answered with Tehran's 'Five Points'. While the US insists on Tehran abandoning the nuclear option, chatter suggests Iran is stressing on guarantees against future US and Israeli aggression. Having offered a unilateral pause on attacks against Iranian energy installations till March 27, Trump has now extended it to April 6 to give the 'successful' back-channel diplomacy a chance - even as he mobilises troops with an eye to the possibility of putting boots on the ground.

It's clear that regime change in Tehran is no longer on the menu. Whether Trump actually dials down and persuades Israel to back off, or decides to escalate the conflict to force reluctant Iranians to the negotiation table, and gets stranded in a 'forever war', remains to be seen. That beleaguered Tehran played the Hormuz gambit well to gain strategic advantage, despite being militarily worsted, need not be doubted.

The writer is professor of history, Calcutta University