Trumpism’s Midterm Crisis: Can MAGA survive the backlash against Trump?

A week after Lula's 'comeback' election victory in Brazil - beating Donald Trump's preferred candidate Flavio Bolsonaro - and Israel's parliamentary elections on Tuesday, where Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump's instigator-in-chief on Iran, faces a critical test of his prime ministership, the US goes to midterm polls.

Trump is not on the ballot in the congressional midterms, but he might as well be. The Nov 3 vote will be more a referendum on his performance and less a traditional fight between candidates.

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Key issues affecting voters - the Iran war, high gas prices, aftermath of tariff mania, naked corruption, data centres and harsh tactics against immigrants - are directly related to Trump's decisions. A deteriorating political and economic landscape at home, and debris of shattered relationships abroad, make for a difficult scenario for Republicans.

The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan and respected forecaster, called Trump 'a drag across the board even in deep red states due to rising fuel prices and persistent high cost of living'. The question isn't whether Democrats will gain seats but how many, wrote editor Jessica Taylor, in an overly optimistic take.

Dems are hopeful but not Pollyannaish. A senior official told me: 'Voters face a choice: reward the party that rubber-stamped Trump's tariffs, backed his war and enabled his friends to cash in on his presidency, or vote for a party focused on making life more affordable and checking Trump. Polls show voters see that's at stake.'

With exactly a week to go before the vote, and an unprecedented amount of money flooding the electoral landscape, scales can tip more than once. Polls have been wrong before, and underestimating Trump's appeal among diehard MAGA supporters and conservative Christians would be folly.

The world's wealthiest man and Trump's close friend, Elon Musk, is pouring money as if there won't be another election. He is the largest individual donor in US history - he has given $445 mn to various Republican-aligned political action committees (PACs), to say nothing of undisclosed donations.

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That he wants the system to keep rewarding his companies with federal contracts at home and protect his interests abroad (did anyone say China?) couldn't be clearer. Muskian generosity has given the Republican Party a massive financial advantage over Democrats. They can flood airwaves with ads and pay workers to knock on doors in battleground states.

Musk's focus is Texas, a state to which he is shifting his business empire from California. It's also the site of one of the most-watched, most expensive, high-stakes senate races. Controversial former attorney-general Ken Paxton, a Republican, is up against Democrat James Talarico. Paxton has been accused of adultery, bribery and abuse of public office. But when you have Musk as a shield, the past disappears.

The Tesla boss has given $158 mn to a senate PAC that landed in a Texas PAC, which turned out to be the largest contributor to Paxton's campaign. Talarico warned that Paxton would be Musk's 'personal senator'. Can that stick? Breaching Texas has been the Democrats' relentless dream, their white whale for years. But whether Talarico can win against big money is unclear.

Texas is not the only game in town. Deep red Kansas has become a 'toss-up' state, raising prospects for Dems in a state where no Democrat has won a senate seat since 1932. The Cook Political Report also changed its forecast in New Hampshire and North Carolina to 'lean Democrat' and 'likely Democrat', adding that a senate majority is within Democrats' sights.

The big picture: midterms will cover all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently have a slim majority, and 33 of the 100 seats in the senate, where they also hold sway with 53 seats. House members serve a 2-yr term while senators have a 6-yr run.

Voters are reeling while Trump continues to talk of a 'new golden age' and a booming economy, inviting contempt on the internet. Nearly 70% of voters say cost-of-living issues are their biggest economic worry, with groceries and gas prices going up instead of down, despite Trump's endless tactics with Iran and Russia to control oil flows and procure diesel. Americans sound as gloomy about the economy as they were after the pandemic.

No surprise that Republicans in close races are busy creating distance from Trump, barely mentioning him or his exaggerated claims. Some of them have acknowledged hardship in their ads and personal appearances. Of course, they blame the liberals, not the president.

Yes, the Red Wall in places like Kansas is weakening, and talk of a Blue Wave washing over the rust belt is getting louder. Trump's popularity is hovering in the low-30s, and voter anger against the Iran war is palpable. He is trying to change the subject, but that doesn't change reality.

PS: Then there's the whole thing about Trump challenging election results.