Trump caught between the devil and the deep Gulf sea

Despite Trump’s many fanciful excesses and failed policies since he assumed office for the second time in January 2025, it is only now that he faces an existential threat to his presidency and legacy. This is because to all but the most obtuse, it is apparent that the US has all but lost the unpopular war against Iran.

This follows from the US’ failure to achieve its 4 avowed objectives with regard to Iran: regime change, cessation of nuclear enrichment, curtailment of the ballistic missiles programme, and discontinuation of support for Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis. In fact, these plans have backfired so spectacularly that Iran now indisputably controls the Strait of Hormuz in which it has set up a toll booth where none existed before, while continuing to wage a successful war of attrition against the US, Israel and their GCC proxies.

No one understands the fallout of this better than Trump. After having been sold a lemon by the Israelis, he has little to show for it except a mounting defence bill, estrangement from critical allies and disappointed investors, falling approval ratings at home dangerously close to the midterms, and renewed calls for impeachment and release of the Epstein files. This is why, since the middle of March, despite his boast and bluster, he has been actively pursuing an off-ramp with Iran which could save the perception of his considerably diminished stature in particular, and that of the US in general.


Yet, when the talks in Islamabad failed, Trump, in an absurd reversal of his earlier demand to Iran that it open the strait, petulantly blockaded the same channel with 14 US warships, threatening to seize any vessels in Persian Gulf that depart from Iranian ports or pay Iran’s toll of $1 a barrel. This is not sustainable for a number of reasons:

1. Any such blockade, assuming that a small US flotilla can effectively control the waterway – since the blockade was put into effect, it has been reported that at least 7 tankers, including 3 sanctioned vessels, went through by hugging the Iranian coastline and taking cover in the shadow of Iranian ordnance – would constitute an act of war, especially for China which, as the main recipient (90%) of Iranian oil, has already warned the US not to meddle in its affairs.

Moreover, even if Trump thinks that such a supply disruption would move China to put pressure on Iran to soften its stance, the former’s reserves would insulate it from an import shock for months. Similarly, while Iran may suffer a temporary loss in revenues from depleted exports, something it was subjected to, and survived, in 2021, it is hardly likely to bring the country to its knees. Instead, Iran could retaliate by irreversibly hobbling GCC energy and port infrastructure, or shutting down access to the Red Sea, forcing the Saudis to beg the US to lift the blockade.

2. Any loss suffered by Iran will pale by comparison with that suffered by the US, which needs oil to continuously flow to the rest of the world, to sustain global economic growth, of which it is a prime beneficiary. The US embargo could drive the price of oil above $120 a barrel and retail inflation above 5% at home, precipitating a US recession. Prices above $150 a barrel could lead to prolonged global stagflation. In short, America’s adversaries could arguably suffer privations longer than the US could remain solvent.

And so, Trump may soon be looking for another off-ramp, begging Türkiye, Pakistan or Switzerland to coordinate another round of talks. But, as before, he will have to contend with acquiescing to the devil, or taking his chances with the deep blue sea. The former comes in the shape of the Israeli regime, billionaire Zionist donors and American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a consortium which, as his main campaign benefactors, have grown accustomed to dictating terms to him and his regime in a way that has no historical precedent in the annals of imperial power.

No wonder that Iranians and Pakistanis both claim that the Islamabad talks fell through after JD Vance, under the watchful eye of his two pro-Israel chaperones, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, was asked to attend a call from Netanyahu. Later, at a press conference, Netanyahu, while denying the phone call, admitted that Vance had ‘reported to me in detail, as the people of this (US) administration do every day’.

Trump would be justified in punishing Israel, the agent provocateur that led the US into this ruinous and unlawful war of aggression with the promise that it would be over in a matter of days, by accepting most of Iran’s terms and walking away from the war. But AIPAC-- the power of which extends into both the legislative and executive branches of government, ably assisted and supported by big business, as well as mainstream and social media--is unlikely, in consequence, to shy away from threatening to defund and defame the Republican Party prior to the midterms, all but pushing their already imperilled position over an electoral precipice.

For all that, Trump will have to decide if it is worth committing political suicide by continuing to prosecute a ruinous war at the behest of Israel, and still secure no definitive result. In this case, the world economy could be wrecked, he will remain unforgiven at home and abroad, Republicans will lose House and Senate, and he will be impeached. Once ousted, he could even go to jail for misdemeanours committed beyond his remit as commander-in-chief. This will guarantee that he is consigned to historical perdition.

The other option is to only sustain the war in Iran long enough for the cracks in global trade and finance to become almost catastrophic, China and Russia to threaten armed intervention, or both. In this case, he may be permitted, or forced, by Congress to shut down the conflict in haste, declare ‘victory’, and prepare to defend himself and his party in the eyes of his MAGA base--despite being defunded by the Israel lobby--after the possible release of the unexpurgated version of the Epstein files, which could even be leaked to the public by a spiteful Netanyahu.

This choice, assuming that he has no intention of calling off the midterms or attempting something even more illicit, while fraught with the uncertainty that attends the best laid plans, presents the sliver of a chance which could spare his presidency the ignominy of removal or forced resignation. This becomes more plausible if Israel is forced into a humiliating surrender by Iran as a consequence, thereby allowing Trump to escape legal prosecution altogether when his lame duck tenure ends.

To all but the most obtuse, it is now apparent that the US has all but lost the unpopular war against Iran. And Trump probably can’t wait to take his chances with the deep blue sea.

The writer is founder-CEO, ALSOWISE Content Solutions