The Trump regime may have bitten off more than it can chew - now for a ramp-off on Israel?

It's Week 2 in the US-Israel war against Iran. The air is toxic in Tehran and Washington. But the poisons are different. Apocalyptic scenes of bellowing fires and black, oil-drenched rain are terrible images for a war advertised to save the Iranian people from an oppressive regime. Incendiary rhetoric and unhinged belligerence from American actors are no better.

Neocons once again are in the forefront, finding new ways to justify the war. Donald Trump is shocked the Iran war didn't follow the Venezuela model, worried it may last longer than he wants, and upset that his aura is burning in real time. Oil and stock markets are warning signs, and he may seriously be looking to 'declare victory' and get out.

Monday was a day of conflicting signals. Trump announced the war 'very complete, pretty much', and the markets responded. But within hours, he found the 'winning' not quite 'enough' and talked of ultimate victory to end 'this long-running danger once and for all'.


The flip-flopping isn't without reason. Support for the war among Americans averages only 38%. And the longer the conflict goes, the worse it will get. He has also lost support on immigration and border control issues, thanks to the excesses by ICE agents. The political war at home is entering the danger zone.

Israel's decision to hit Iranian fuel depots last Saturday resulting in hellish flames didn't go down well with the White House. Even the war-blind could see it hurt the people and oil markets. Trump disapproved because somewhere he understands the cost of overkill.

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War can change the psychology of people upon whom it's being wrought. They may despise the regime, but still shudder at bombs raining on their capital, Tomahawks landing on a school, lifelong damage from burning oil depots and at casual declarations about 'breaking up' Iran. They may recalculate their anger, if temporarily.

So, can Trump force an off-ramp on Israel? In the ever-changing endgame, Marco Rubio defined the latest US goals thus: destroy Iran's missiles and launchers, destroy factories that make them, and destroy their navy. That's considerable shrinking of goals, and they are close to being met. But Israeli war aims are wider, and US neocons are in agreement.

Senator Lindsey Graham, warmonger-in-chief, has been beating the drums since last year as a vital part of the Netanyahu-Trump intelligence loop. He coached both sides to prepare the ground for the attacks. Graham has supported every US war since the 2003 attack against Iraq and revelled in them. He has been itching to punish Iran for decades. He called for pre-emptive strikes in 2010 and for air strikes in 2015.

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Now that he's got his wish, he can't contain himself. 'We're going to blow the hell out of these people... this regime is in death throes, it is going to be on its knees.' Graham wants Saudi Arabia and the UAE to 'get in the fight' because they have the weapons.

Trump's base is not amused. Many believe they were sold a false bill of goods. Anti-war MAGA voices have taken to repeating conservative activist Charlie Kirk's warning last year before he was assassinated - that a regime-change war in Iran would be 'catastrophic' and 'could easily become a calamity'. Test the thesis at your peril.

Iran has steadily expanded the war, showing its capacity to sustain and continue. US talking heads are shocked Russia is helping Tehran with targeting info - what a scandal! The regime's naming of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei who was killed in the 'decapitation strike', as the new ayatollah is a defiant message of continuity. A Khamenei for a Khamanei for $10 bn in nine days reminds cynics of Afghanistan: Taliban for Taliban in 20 yrs after trillions spent, and thousands of lives lost.

Khamenei Jr begins with a target on his back. US and Israeli analysts have declared him a hardliner. The new Iranian leader won't go for 'unconditional surrender' and 'cry uncle', as Trump wants. The endgame may shift again. But the Trump regime has realised it faces a theocracy backed by security forces, dispersed and built to persevere in the worst scenarios. The mission - however it's defined - won't be accomplished cleanly.

India must brace for impact and go beyond reluctant statements made under pressure. In a region dripping with political, religious and military rivalries, Delhi prematurely showed its hand with a high-level visit that served Netanyahu in the moment more than Modi. Gulf countries, which host US bases and Indian workers in large numbers, were watching. They pushed hard to avoid this war, but failed. India could have said and done more.