The Donland deal: How Pakistan got Trump’s attention again

Pakistan has entered Donald Trump's mind and occupied some head space by doing what it does best - please, pamper and satisfy all needs of the moment, be it delivering terrorists or minerals. Like it or not, Pakistan is in the room, if not at the table, even as Trump and Modi will bump into each other at the ongoing G7 Summit at Kananaskis, Canada. It anticipated contours of Trump's second coming better, adjusted its posture, made the right offers and made them early. The effort is bolstered by more than 10 different lobbying firms working the system, including one headed by Trump's former bodyguard Keith Schiller.

A unique quirk: Trump seems to like generals in uniform. Be sure he's thinking of army chief Asim Munir and not Shehbaz Sharif when he talks of Pakistan's 'great leaders' in his frequent remembrances of the India-Pak ceasefire he 'crafted'. A detail: contrary to reports in the hyper media, Munir was not invited to attend the parade to celebrate 250 years of the US army.

India is struggling to adjust to a presidency that is less institutional, less structured and less focused. It's about getting the Kremlinology right, the sophisticated art of reading cryptic and crypto signals, and flying close to the sons (even Barron Trump). Outrage - however satisfying - will not help get over the Trump hump. Nor would cancelling defence orders in a fit of pique and losing the long game. Better to use the relationship to build capacity.


It's good to remember that US-Pak relations were factored in when India decided to strengthen relations with Washington back in the day and negotiate the nuclear deal. They have remained a reality even though New Delhi thought it had put Pakistan in the diplomatic isolation ward. It kept bouncing back with American and British help and a permanent cadre of sympathetic bureaucrats, including retired ambassadors, in both capitals. Official India learnt to deal with the pain even if IT cell warriors and rabid TV anchors didn't.

Today, says an analyst, the question remains the same: 'Does India want to - or will it - give Pakistan a veto on US- India ties?' The answer from New Delhi so far seems to be 'no' even as anger rises and political pain grows. Pakistan will do anything to please Trump and Sons. India will not.

Consider Pakistan's play. Over the past few years, with the Afghanistan war over and US interest waning, the army-ISI combine realised that Pakistan was no longer a frontline state. Joe Biden paid little attention and never dialled Islamabad. As American focus moved to the Indo-Pacific and rivalry with China, Pakistan knew it wasn't going to be part of the Quad, although it made some half-hearted attempts.

Pakistani elite understood they couldn't vie with India. But they were 'happy just to be heard and not be considered irrelevant'. The militablishment went back to the original drawing board - counterterrorism cooperation - to keep parts of the US government engaged. The easiest doors to open were at the State Department and CIA.

Biden was dismissive of Pakistan. But note that his administration approved $450 mn to 'sustain' Pakistan's F-16 fleet, including engine hardware upgrades and classified software support. The package was said to be for counterterrorism operations. In a replay, Trump approved $397 mn in February for the same fleet, despite announcing a wide freeze on foreign aid. He made an exception.

In the background, Rawalpindi slowly took control of Pakistan's China policy from the politicians and worked to dispel the notion the country was (completely) in Beijing's camp. Americans wanted to believe the myth for their own reasons. For the Pakistan army, maintaining ties to America, enjoying the free military training and keeping tabs on Pentagon's thinking have always been priorities. To say nothing of serving as an important window for China in DC.

More to the point, Pakistani generals never let US Centcom lose sight of the fact that their country was/is always available as a strategic staging area for US operations. Which brings us to the present. Munir and Centcom commander Michael Kurilla go back a long way. Both assumed their current positions in 2022 and have hosted each other more than once.

It shouldn't be a surprise that last week, the American general called Pakistan 'a phenomenal partner' in the fight against IS-Khorasan. Kurilla clearly thinks the military partnership with Pakistan can, and should, exist separately from the one with India.

Kurilla was the first person Munir called to say that the Abbey Gate bomber Mohammad Sharifullah, a.k.a. Jaffar, had been caught. He then requested that the message be passed on to the president. Result: a special mention in Trump's address to Congress.

And so it will go. Until it    won't.