Test of Sarma Shiksha Abhiyan in Assam Polls amid welfare gains and social faultlines

As the election battle in Assam heats up after a slow start, what has emerged clearly is that Himanta Biswa Sarma, the state chief minister, has been campaigning and connecting in a mass contact programme since last November – and in his usual style, ahead of the game.

Sarma’s personal energy, big plans for Assam including upgrading its long-sagging physical infrastructure, and political acumen are as well-known as the sharpness of his attacks on perceived foes -- political, demographic and religious. Controversies and allegations about him fly thick and fast but scarcely make a dent. He has emerged as the dominant figure on the political landscape.

However, what started off as a playing field where the Bharatiya Janata Party was hugely dominant with the opposition scrambling to make its presence felt, now appears to have turned into a contest in a number of constituencies. This has taken shape after a late fashioning of opposition unity and is likely to reduce the fracturing of anti-BJP votes.


“Earlier, there was no alternative but now a fight is on,” said Sushanta Talukdar, an independent commentator. “But we have to see how it plays out on the ground.”

Another key issue that has divided votes and communities is religion. Sarma has made no secret of his animus toward Bengali-origin Muslims, many of whom was descendants of migrants from the former East Bengal in the pre-independence period. This is the dominant demographic group in western Assam where there are numerous smaller indigenous groups such as the Bodos who now have control of a sprawl of territory under a political arrangement devised through a Constitutional process.

Over the past weeks, Sarma has targeted this group, known for its hard work as labour and also as farmers producing vegetables, grain and meat for markets and sustaining the local economy. There also are now established migrant corridors to western and southern India from Assam. Remittances from migrants in other states helps sustain families and injects cash into the economy.

The BJP approach to Muslim “settlers” has led to further divisions between those of Bengali origin and the older Assamese Muslims, some of whom trace their origins to ancestors who came to Assam 300 years and more ago.

In the past weeks, Sarma has even urged other groups to pay Bengali-origin workers less for labour and make life so uncomfortable that they leave the state, drawing criticism from the opposition. Muslims have faced the brunt of official eviction drives against people who have settled illegally on government lands.

Yet, interestingly, although the BJP has not fielded a single non-Hindu candidate– the lone Christian BJP MLA in the previous assembly, who was a tribal and deputy speaker, didn’t get a ticket – it has allowed a regional ally to nominate 13 Muslim candidates. This entry through the back door comes via the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), now a shadow of its former self when it once dominated Assam politics. It also follows BJP declarations that it would not contest those seats where Bengali-origin Muslims have a majority.

Add to the mix the redrawing of specific constituencies in 2023 that gave the BJP an upper hand. “This was a political project and they doubled down on it,” says Mirza Zulfiqar Rahman, a senior researcher.

The BJP election machinery grinds on confident of its hold on large urban and the tea plantation vote banks. Its targets include three major demographics: first time voters especially students who have benefited from an array of scholarships and grants. These have been provided to students irrespective of religious and social groupings. Although the grants are modest, they have reduced the pressure on vulnerable and lower-income households.

A second big constituent upon which the BJP is banking are women beneficiaries of its economic stipends. The third is of course the sizeable “tea communities”, which include the descendants of Adivasis, Santhals and other groups which were transported by the British in the 19th century to work on Assam’s tea gardens.

However, there appears to be a growing fatigue with efforts to polarize society by playing the religious card. In addition, in Upper Assam, the ruling party appears to be on the backfoot as it has not met a long- standing demand by smaller ethnic groups such as the Ahoms (which ruled Assam for 600 years) for ST status.

At the end of a decade of BJP rule, the advantages are visible – road communications are better, health and education infrastructure has improved although much still needs to be done. More tourists and new investments are coming in – be it the Rs 27,000 crore Tata semi-conductor plant coming up in Central Assam as well as a large renewable energy project and a new airport by the Adani group at Guwahati.

Yet challenges remain especially for the capital’s residents who among other things have to contend with the mess at street level, below the new flyovers. This is especially the case whenever the city floods, especially after a bout of heavy rain: drains overflow, traffic stalls and the city comes to a halt.

Heaps of uncleared garbage line many streets.

And when the waters rise, “The city’s innards are exposed,” said one scholar.

In the background lurks the tragedy of the phenomenally popular singer Zubeen Garg who died in a swimming incident last September in Singapore. His death shut down the state in a paroxysm of grief for a week. Garg’s supporters appear at rallies and on streets in small groups with placards demanding ‘Justice for Zubeen da’. But it is still an undercurrent in an election that is seen as crucial for Sarma’s future.