Our bullion-dollar troubles can end if India goes for gold

It was a subdued Diwali this year. Gold trading on Dhanteras was down by 50%. Traders blamed it on mostly on the lack of gold supply which was 83% lower than last year. But policy makers cheered. Their draconian policy of restricting gold imports was working. India’s trade deficit had declined and the rupee had calmed. But it is a temporary victory. Gold smuggling is on the rise and will eventually triumph, undermining a great victory of the 1991 reforms, which was to kill the havala market. There is breathing room, however, as gold forecasters expect world prices to fall. Western and Chinese investors are losing interest in gold as their economies pick up, which should also dampen Indian investor interest.

India absorbs about a quarter of the world’s gold, and the finance minister is quite right in wanting to limit its import. A recurring theme of world history is the constant loss of Western gold and silver to India. Two thousand years ago Roman senators grumbled that their women used too many Indian spices, silks and fine cottons, and India was draining the Roman empire of bullion. Pliny the Elder called India the ‘sink of the world’s precious metal’ when he heard that a Roman ship touched an Indian port daily.

The Portuguese similarly complained in the 16th century that their hard won gold and silver from South America was being lost to India. The British Parliament echoed this refrain in the 17th century. But India kept sucking Western bullion because Western consumers hankered after Indian luxuries and Indians were not interested in Western goods. As books had to be balanced, they were balanced with bullion. Only Britain’s Industrial Revolution reversed the flow in the 19th century when Indians finally found something they wanted from the West—cheap, durable cottons from the mills of Lancashire — as handlooms worldwide gave way to machine-made cloth.

Soon after Independence, India’s leaders forgot their grand trading heritage and closed our economy in the mistaken belief that trade had impoverished India. Touting the false mantra of ‘self-reliance’, they adopted an import-substituting path, and India lost out in the great trading boom after World War II. India’s share of world trade declined from 2.2% in 1947 to 0.5% in 1990. It was only after 1991 that India regained its historic pre-eminence in the world economy.

Given the one-way flow of gold over the centuries, a staggering amount has accumulated in India. The World Gold Council estimates it to be over 20,000 tonnes, worth $1.1 trillion or half of India’s GDP. For years economists have wanted to use this unproductive asset for productive investment. And happily, the process has begun. Gold loans, bonds, and deposit schemes are all steps in the right direction. In these schemes owners of gold earn interest by depositing it with banks, which in turn releases part of it in the market, thus reducing India’s demand for imported gold.