Not aimed at India, but meant for India: Russia sanctions law leaves New Delhi at Trump's mercy

In the ongoing series called Nasty Surprises from Washington, the latest is Donald Trump's ability to impose up to 100% tariffs on India and other top buyers of Russian oil. It doesn't mean he would. But the sword will hang over the relationship since it's the law. And it passed with bipartisan votes, no less.

Pushback from MEA was the strongest yet, after the House of Representatives voted for the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, making the uncertain into the inevitable. India will do what it must to ensure energy security for 1.4 bn people - it will source oil from where it can without thumbing its nose. With Russian and Iranian oil out of easy reach, large buyers' hunt for oil will impact prices in other countries, including the US. 'Potential implications' are immense.

Also read: 100% US tariff law raises uncertainty, may disrupt India's exports if imposed: Exporters


'Sources' have begun raising doubts whether Narendra Modi would still attend the G20 summit in Florida in December. It would depend on what happens between now and then. The 'almost done' trade deal may go up in smoke if Trump decides to use his newly endowed power to impose higher tariffs on Indian exports.

Over the past months, Indian diplomats aggressively engaged both Capitol Hill and the Trump regime as the bill began to take shape to emphasise that the pile of negatives in the India-US relationship shouldn't be allowed to grow or the core will melt. Some of it already has, despite best efforts.

The new law is Trump's very own hammer, authorised by the US Congress to be used when he wants and how he wants. The legal power vested in him is greater and more secure from court challenges. Silver lining: he can give a waiver, and a waiver is not time-limited, and the bill has a sunset clause of 5 yrs.

Interestingly, Trump was indifferent to the idea of a sanctions bill last year when the late senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican hawk, was pushing it as a way to force Vladimir Putin's hand. Trump didn't want to be forced to act against Russia. He wanted flexibility, and White House lawyers apparently played a major role in the drafting of the current bill, a job normally done within the Congress.

Graham died in July and Russia hawks on the Democratic side saw an opportunity to push the bill. It may be hard for Indians to imagine the deep and abiding aversion of the US establishment towards Russia. Trump is actually an exception and, thus, his demand for a law that suits him. US Congress complied, abdicating its role as a constraint on executive power.

What changed Trump's indifference to interest? Short answer: real possibility of Republicans losing the House in November. He likely heard grim stories from party members at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas earlier this month, and realised it was now or never. Speaker Mike Johnson was asked to urgently bring the bill to the House floor. Johnson obeyed, ignoring all Congressional processes and niceties. There was no review by an appropriate House committee, and no debate before the vote.

While Republican members lying supine before Trump wasn't a surprise, 58 Democrats crossing party lines to support a bill that hands more power to a tariff-obsessed president certainly was. It seems they wanted to 'punish' Russia more than protect their legislative turf. Some House members were at pains to stress the bill was not aimed at India.

That's a distinction without a difference. And it's ultimately irrelevant, because the targets were always top buyers of Russian oil. However, 152 Dems did vote 'No' to try to preserve what remains of Congressional dignity and authority. The final vote was 262-159.

Congressman Gregory Meeks, the seniormost Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a strong opponent, called the bill 'deeply flawed'. It hands 'the president sweeping new tariff authorities that he can abuse...'. With such extraordinary powers in hand, it'll be open season on whichever government Trump's angry with at a given time, he added. Ask Canada.

In the end, nothing mattered. Republicans' penchant to please Trump ranked above their constituents' economic travails. Which, by the way, are greatly exacerbated because of the US war on Iran and Trump's inability to end it.

Also read: Trump signs Russia-Iran sanctions law, opens door to 100% tariffs on India

Finally, a threat of further sanctions under the new law is unlikely to scare either Putin to end his war on Ukraine, or Xi Jinping to stop helping Russia and Iran with intelligence and equipment. Besides, Trump will host Xi later this week for a peace-making and content-light summit. He knows better than to threaten the guest with new tariffs after China blocked rare earth minerals to the US last year, forcing 'Tariff King' Trump to quickly backtrack.

India is another story. It doesn't control any critical supply chain it can block to make life impossible for US companies.