Nitish Kumar's resignation: First salvo to catalyse a realignment of anti-BJP forces

By Neerja Chowdhury
Nitish Kumar’s surprise resignation to take “moral responsibility” for the crushing defeat his party has suffered in Bihar at the hands of the saffron forces is the first salvo fired to catalyse a realignment of forces to counter a resurgent BJP. Equally stunning was the response of Nitish’s chief adversary — Lalu Prasad, who agreed to support JD(U), and RJD MLAs could undergird the JD(U) ministry.

Flushed with success, BJP would naturally like to strike while the iron is hot. It had hoped for the collapse of the Nitish Government, and for Bihar elections — which are otherwise due in November 2015 — to be held along with other states like Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and J&K — and possibly Delhi — expected in October this year. Both Nitish and Lalu — and the Congress, and this is the new lineup being fashioned — would like to buy more time.

It is premature to conclude the thaw between Nitish and Lalu is a precursor for a tie-up between JD(U) and RJD in the 2015 state polls, though both leaders have worked together in the past during the Janata Dal days.

Even in Delhi, there is rethink in AAP — which lost all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi — about forming the government again with the help of Congress. AAP is fighting to retain its relevance; its “murmurs” would not be possible without some kind of a signal having come from Congress. Elections in Delhi today would wipe out Congress, damage AAP and bring BJP to power.

It would be interesting to watch UP, where the coming together of Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav is a little more difficult to achieve.

Given its whopping majority, it would be a little more difficult to topple the SP government in Lucknow. Though Mulayam and Mayawati were partners in government in UP in 1993-95, Mayawati would find it difficult to forget “1995 when SP goons had attacked the guest house where she was staying to bring her to heel”.

As for Kumar, his resignation was calculated to achieve four objectives.

One, to pre-empt a rebellion in his party. There was restiveness in the party following his decision to break with BJP last year and there was a great deal of turbulence at recent meetings of JD(U) after the polls. This would have unsheathed more knives against Nitish, making his continuation as CM untenable.

Two, he was able to take a moral high ground. From all accounts, Nitish plans to move out of his chief ministerial bungalow in Patna and this shows that he is unlikely to be persuaded by his partymen to withdraw his resignation. Returning to the gaddi would reduce the resignation drama to a mere charade.

Since Lalu would prefer supporting a JD(U) government without Nitish at its head, the government in Patna will in all likelihood be headed by someone who Lalu is also comfortable with, say someone like power minister Bijendra Yadav, who was earlier in Lalu’s government and enjoys a clean image. Three, even as Bihar is awash with the Modi wave, Nitish may hope to generate a sympathy with his resignation. Even during the campaign many had expressed the view — one survey put this figure at 63% — that even as they voted for Modi, they were happy with the way Nitish had turned around Bihar.

And lastly, Nitish Kumar obviously hoped to seize the initiative for a regrouping of political forces opposed to Narendra Modi.
Writer is a Political Commentator