MoU is less: Trump's birthday breakthrough has strings attached

Many false starts and missed calls later - 39 to be precise - it seems Donald Trump was 40th time lucky. It happened to be his 80th birthday on Sunday when the ultimate gift arrived: a deal with Iran to end the war.

Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed the news, but only on Monday local time. Tehran didn't want to play the birthday game. The two sides will sign a 14-point MoU on Friday, followed by a 60-day ceasefire during which they will negotiate a range of tough issues, including Iran's nuclear programme.

Benjamin Netanyahu was not directly involved, but may have inadvertently helped seal the deal. Israeli strikes on Beirut's suburbs early Sunday threatened to derail negotiations as Iran prepared to retaliate. Things were on the brink of falling apart. Once again. Trump was livid - with Israel. He told Axios, Netanyahu 'has no fucking judgement'.


The Iranians stepped into the breach and extracted more concessions as the price for holding their fire. One of those might be the release of $12 bn in frozen assets before the 60-day period begins. Tehran desperately needs the money, no doubt, but Bibi made it easier. The US blockade has severely affected Iran's ability to sell oil, making an already dire economic situation worse.

End to the war will be welcome news in the rest of the world. Trump is already being ridiculed for folding before achieving any of his war aims. Netanyahu faces anger from the extreme right for not subduing Hezbollah once and for all.

No one truly knows the real power distribution in Iran. But it seems the dreaded IRGC types are fine with a ceasefire, now that they have tested the ultimate weapon called Hormuz. They know they can crater the global economy and hold the world hostage should the need arise. It was time to allow Pakistan's mediation efforts to bear fruit. Qatar joined the peace parleys in the final days to fill in the blanks and grease the wheels.

If all goes well, the MoU will be signed in Geneva by US vice-president J D Vance and Iranian Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the main negotiator for Tehran, after which the rival blockades would end and the process of de-mining the Strait of Hormuz will begin. Europeans will likely join, or lead, the clean-up effort if only to make up with Trump after refusing to join his war.

Signing of the MoU will start the clock on negotiations for a final agreement that will include discussions on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, and the fate of its proxies in the region. Although Iranian news leaks claim the last two topics are off the agenda.

For now, both sides are busy doing victory laps. Trump crowed how he made peace with Iran when all other presidents failed even though nothing of substance has yet been negotiated. Gharibabadi boasted, 'The enemy has been defeated on all counts. All our key positions made it into the final text.' He has promised to make the text public once it's signed.

It seems a lot of winks and nods also went into the final product. If you thought the strait situation would go back to status quo ante, think again. It seems Iran will charge a price for going through Hormuz, but not call it a toll - an apparent concession to Trump so he could boast on social media it's 'toll-free'.

In reality, it may be anything but. The term of choice is 'navigation and maintenance service fee'. According to the details revealed by Iran's Mehr News Agency, the strait will reopen 'under Iranian arrangements' - another euphemism for tolls. Other wins by Iran include release of $24 bn in blocked funds, half of which must be released before negotiations begin, or they won't.

The MoU envisages a permanent and immediate end to war on all fronts, including Lebanon; withdrawal of US forces from around Iran; suspension of all sanctions on Iran's oil and petrochemical products; a final agreement on the nuclear issue within 60 days; nullification of UNSC resolutions and IAEA Board of Governors' resolutions against Iran, and reaffirmation by Iran of its NPT commitment not to produce nuclear weapons. The final agreement would be ratified by a UN resolution.

The MoU will most definitely evolve and the final arrangement may look very different after two months of negotiations. One side is well-prepared having negotiated an earlier agreement with the Americans. The other side is under the command of someone who tends to get impatient, even bored.