In Dire Strait of Hormuz

It's Week 3 and Trump's biggest challenge is to Make the Strait of Hormuz Great Again - free of Iranian mines and missiles, and flowing to the old rhythms. He wants help. But no one seems to be coming.

The US-Israeli bombing of Iran for 18 days has come down to a face-off at Hormuz, a vital, crucial oil lifeline for the world. Iran has laid mines and threatened to drone tankers of hostile powers. Not one litre of oil can go through without Iranian military's approval.

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Hormuz accounts for one-fifth, or about 20%, of global oil flows. Last heard, an average of 20 mn barrels moved through the waterway in 2023. Also important is the flow of fertilisers, since a third of global trade goes through the strait. Sowing season starts next month. India, the largest importer of urea, was already forced to ask China, the largest producer, to ease export restrictions on the fertiliser.

In short, Hormuz blocked is calamity unlocked with global economic impact of the kind the US war president and the Israeli (perpetually-at-)war prime minister didn't plan for. Now, the mighty must defend a waterway - 150 km long, but only 24 km wide at its narrowest, nastiest point. Going back in history, Babur recognised its vast importance and talked about how trading almonds meant carrying them from distant Central Asia to the Hormuz to reach lucrative markets.

Trump spent time personally calling European allies over the weekend, asking them to send warships to the strait that currently looks like Gurgaon-on-sea at rush hour. Tankers and ships are lined up and waiting to exit. But several leaders he asked have either refused, or got an acute case of hesitation.

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Italy's Giorgia Meloni had distanced herself from her friend before he even got a chance to ask.

As things currently stand: Japan is obfuscating, Britain is pondering - although conservatives in both countries want their governments to help, as they see logic in Trump's claim that they are more dependent on oil coming through Hormuz than he is.

France will help only in defensive operations. China is mum, and Russia is smiling. Germany said a hard 'nein', with defence minister Boris Pistorius spelling it out: 'This is not our war, we have not started it... [Besides], what can a handful or two handfuls of European frigates do in the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful US Navy cannot do?' Ouch.

For the record, the US Navy was the first to refuse to get in the line of Iranian drones. It announced last week it wasn't ready to escort ships through the strait. A premature declaration from energy secretary Chris Wright last Thursday that the US Navy will soon escort oil tankers was shot down by the White House faster than you could say Hormuz.

Iran's weaponisation of the waterway is asymmetric warfare that any war gamer worth his/ her salt would have envisioned.

Iran's new/old leaders have declared the US and its allies won't be allowed peaceful passage through the Hormuz. Everyone else is welcome to sail through - provided there's a good quid pro quo for Tehran in the shape of desperately needed supplies. So far, two Indian, one Pakistani, and one Turkish vessel have been cleared.

Tehran's tactics are proving effective. For now. But its real ally may turn out to be American public opinion if the Democrats can galvanise their constituencies. So far, the Dems' message is all over the place. Almost as scattered as Trump's own, even though conservative analysts insist they see method in the madness. They see an arc from Venezuela to Iran to Cuba bending towards China in terms of reducing Beijing's presence from the western hemisphere to West Asia.

Trump did say on Monday he believed he would have the 'honour' of taking Cuba. 'Whether I free it, take it. Think I   can do anything I want with it.' The statement is significant since the US and Cuba are in talks aimed at reaching accommodation after decades of hostility.

That accommodation means removal of President Miguel Diaz-Canel from office. Cuba is squeezed with no oil and electricity. And it can't do a Hormuz.