Lula's India visit: Brazil's 300-member delegation signals trade, AI & defence push amid trump tariffs

Panama City: As the largest-ever Brazilian delegation is in India this week, led by President Lula da Silva, two things stand out: timing and scale. The delegation left for India just before the culmination of Brazil's Carnival, the country's most popular holiday. For highly social people who value their cultural traditions and strike a steady work-life balance, leaving Carnival halfway to make a business trip shows serious commitment.

The delegation's scale merits comparison. Lula is accompanied by 12 ministers and 300 businesspersons, more than twice the 120-member US delegation in India for the AI Impact Summit, and much larger than previous German or British delegations that visited India. Apart from deepening ties, there's another reason for this seemingly magnanimous increase in enthusiasm. Both India and Brazil bore the brunt of Trump tariffs. These threats from the US provided a window of opportunity, and both New Delhi and Brasilia seem up to the task.

In 2025, both countries infused a healthy dose of political will to mobilise an already solid bilateral relationship. In just one year, India has gone from being Brazil's 10th-largest trading partner to its 5th-largest in 2025. India-Brazil trade reached $15.21 bn in 2025, a 25% growth from the previous year, with India's exports to Brazil standing at $8.35 bn and imports at $6.85 bn.


Even as private sectors in India and Brazil direct their attention to energy, food security, critical minerals, and value-added sectors like healthcare, vehicles and agribusiness, both governments are keen on expanding the strategic nature of the relationship, particularly through high technology and defence. Both are in play during this visit.

Brazil has been a key component of India's AI Impact Summit, and Lula, along with six Brazilian cabinet ministers, led one of the summit's main sessions on responsible AI policies and their possible social impact.

Many Brazilian defence companies are also part of the delegation, some of which have agreements or JVs with Indian companies to produce military aircraft, small arms and ammunition.

The most ambitious actor in this space is Brazil's Embraer, the 3rd-largest global producer of civilian aircraft and one of the world's largest defence contractors. After opening a subsidiary in India and signing agreements with Mahindra Group and Adani Defence and Aerospace, Embraer is mulling setting up a production unit and a final assembly line to source more local content.

If India and Brazil keep up this momentum, they may also finalise - perhaps later this year - a more comprehensive trade agreement between India and Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay).

There is also a political element to this evolving camaraderie. India and Brazil have independent visions of foreign policy. While New Delhi follows a new avatar of non-alignment, 'strategic autonomy', Brasilia practices 'autonomia pela diversificacao' (autonomy through diversification). Both countries are moving forward with a diversification strategy independent of the US and China, and have recently signed a slew of trade agreements, including with the EU.

In the context of trade uncertainty wrought by Washington, Brazil's large delegation to India sends an important signal: if both countries are pushed into a corner, they can turn to each other. It's also a bonus that Lula's visit comes just two weeks before his forthcoming trip to Washington.

This visit should also be viewed in a larger context, one that goes beyond India and Brazil. The ever-changing international order appears to be a symptom of Antonio Gramsci's concept of the 'interregnum', a transitional period where the old is dying, and the new is not yet born. At this time, it would be wise for middle powers to maximise their influence and expand their reach into new territories, both geographic and thematic.

They must do this while striking a balance with the US and China and charting their own path in an increasingly unpredictable world. This will not be an easy task. But intent matters. The objective is not to find a substitute for China or the US, but to hedge against future risks and uncertainties.