Kya expansionist idea, Ramboji! What Trump’s Maduro capture reveals to the world & India

Governments across the world are trying to examine whether the capture of Nicolas Maduro by US forces has thrown up lessons for them. For India, the key takeaway is collapse of China's air defence system in Venezuela during Saturday's assault. This comes 7 months after Indian forces destroyed several Pakistani airbases, exposing the vulnerabilities of China-made radars.

Several countries are also worried about the ability of US intelligence agencies and their cyber support teams to infiltrate security apparatuses. This was earlier seen during US strikes of Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025. Despite some quarters being impressed by the US operation in Venezuela, what Trump has done is open Pandora's box, which could destabilise regions and threaten world peace.

The US had given sufficient indication that it would take 'action' against Maduro. But none of Venezuela's allies - China, Russia and Iran - provided the Venezuelan president with any actionable intelligence or coordinated military support.


The image of China, which positions itself as an alternative power centre that runs counter to a unipolar, US-centric world that has eschewed international order, has been tarnished. Beijing may be forced to re-examine its influence-building strategy, which involves participating in joint military exercises and investing billions in infrastructure projects. Some experts have questioned the wisdom of investing $65 bn in a BRI programme in Pakistan.

The latest US assault may lead to American companies controlling the world's biggest oil reserve, provided they gain effective control over Venezuela. But there are doubts because Delcy Rodriguez, of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) led by Maduro, remains acting president, whom Trump is threatening with additional strikes if she does not toe the US line.

It's being argued that Washington will have no moral right to intervene if China invades Taiwan, Israel tries to capture Gaza, Russia takes control of more regions in Ukraine, or India decides to 'take action' in POK. But Trump is less keen on occupying the moral high ground than he is on getting his hands on resources, including oil, in other countries.

Beijing has two choices. Xi Jinping can attack Taiwan before Taipei obtains more sophisticated weapons systems from Washington and replace the elected leaders with his nominees. Or he can concentrate on China's economic growth and enhance China's ability to equal, or even overtake, the US before invading Taiwan. In the process, Xi could choose to enhance China's current attempts to come across as the more stable global power respecting an international rules-based order. Engaging Taiwan militarily at this time could invite US intervention, which would distract China from its economic growth plan, and make Xi's China just another 'Trump's US'.

The capture of Maduro may, indeed, trigger a chain reaction among other regimes with the capability to forgo the idea of nation-state sovereignty. It could certainly prompt countries to intensify their programmes of militarisation and use of military force as instruments of economic and foreign policy. So, beyond the 'GI Joe' shock and awe in Venezuela, Trump has certainly made countries less inhibited about an expansionist strategy, and the world a less secure place.

The writer is former ToI correspondent in Beijing