What is Trump's real objective with India?

Donald Trump is changing the ground rules of geopolitics faster than players can adapt, let alone counter. There are no safe spaces, no escape routes. Everything is sanctioned, tariffed or weaponised. Even visas.

Trying to find stability in the churn is like chasing a mirage. Predictability may not return in the short term, if ever, and partnerships will begin to mean different things. The UN General Assembly in New York meets with a world deeply polarised, its leaders confused, and their diplomats trying hard to outrun Trump's policy-breaking ways.

To be sure, Israel's continuing war has given him a headache or two. Trump will meet Muslim leaders to mend fences after Israeli strikes on Qatar, which led to Saudi Arabia quickly sealing a mutual defence pact with Pakistan for extra security. Yes, Shehbaz Sharif will be in the meeting.


Just as well the Indian PM decided to stay away. It's not the time. The relationship is under too much stress. Imagine being in the audience as Trump accused India and China as 'the primary funders' of Russia's war on Ukraine, in his UN speech yesterday. He then patted himself on the back again for ending seven wars, including one between India and Pakistan.

S Jaishankar's meeting with Marco Rubio a day earlier resulted in a somewhat terse and cursory statement by the EAM in line with the times. He promised to 'remain in touch'. Piyush Goyal, too, met his counterparts. But no word on how it went.

Trump's move-fast-and-break-things policies have imposed huge costs on Delhi. No more, is the clear message from MAGA. 'The American dream was never supposed to be for you people,' one hardliner made clear on X.

The ugly is getting uglier. The few who try to defend Indian workers are getting slammed by the vast army of the angry. In the aftermath of conservative activist Charlie Kirk's murder, the movement is more united, more determined and more focused on keeping non-White immigrants out and deporting the illegals.

Trump won't stand in the way, not until the midterm elections, and if then. He needs manna from MAGA. Tech titans, who recently dined with Trump, won't do the talking even as their H-1Bs do the walking - back to India. One country's brain drain could be another's brain gain. That's the hope, except the ground needs to be more fertile with investments, R&D budgets and seamless policies.

America is slowly closing its doors. Forget your tired, your poor, your huddled masses. Even your tech wizards and your fortune makers are not welcome unless their employers can pay $1 lakh per visa next year. The White House order does give discretionary powers to retain H-1B workers if deemed to be in the US national interest. Expect Indian doctors in rural areas to be a national security asset.

Critics say Trump's fee hike will drive talent to other countries, hurt innovation, reduce productivity and disproportionately hurt startups as foreign talent gets choked off. Combine the crackdown on H-1Bs with new restrictions on international students, both of which impact Indians the most, and there's no happy ending.

India has been at the receiving end of some of the most damaging Trump moves, whether by design or default, the recent exchange of positive messages with Modi notwithstanding. Last week, the US revoked the 2018 waiver that allowed India to develop and operate Iran's Chabahar port. The revocation was ostensibly done to increase pressure on Tehran. But, in reality, it punishes India and rewards China. Meanwhile, India is under the highest US tariffs at 50%.

Are all of the above a result of a conscious India strategy or the absence of one? Trump clearly has a China strategy - impose tariffs and simultaneously negotiate a deal. He went against US law to reach an agreement on TikTok. He also had a Russia strategy - stop the war, give Russia space, make deals, and then let Europeans defend themselves. Except the strategy floundered.

He has a West Asia strategy - back Israel to the hilt, diminish its enemies (mainly Iran), and get more Arab states to join the Abraham Accords. Except Benjamin Netanyahu tends to exceed his brief and Trump pretends to be upset. Arabs have grown anxious, but they can buy their way in or out - the Pakistan-Saudi military pact is an example.

What is Trump's real objective with India? Is it only to have a functional relationship? It seems like there's no endgame as with China and Russia. Or he would have approved the trade deal and not imposed oil sanctions on India.