India watches, Pakistan acts: The optics war Delhi is losing

US-Iran talks are stalled, and Trump has extended the ceasefire at Pakistan's request. Asim Munir couldn't bring Iran to a second round despite all the embellished messaging. Allegations are flying from all three capitals about who promised what to whom and didn't deliver.

Munir will still get credit for getting the two sides this far and will be rewarded. Pakistan has exploited its limited weight to the fullest, while India seems content to play it safe. One is a frenzied actor creating space for future endeavours, the other a surprised observer, treading water to protect its equities.

India's fail-safe posture has led to misreading the room on several occasions over the past 2 yrs, starting with the presidential campaign and continuing through Trump 2.0. Democrats feel neglected because Indian diplomats are too busy courting the Trump regime. Vikram Misri's schedule didn't include a meet-and-greet with the Dems. Surely, an hour for senior staffers on Capitol Hill or a think tank soiree was warranted.


For Pakistan, a higher profile means higher dividends. Such is the current utility, prickly questions about Pakistan's desperate economy or dying democracy or terror games are dismissed as nitpicking.

Whether Munir can meet US expectations, satisfy Saudi Arabia, bring Iran's hardliners along, and manage the Shias at home remains to be seen. For now, his shuttle diplomacy is earning praise. Pakistan's past record as a backchannel (China and Afghanistan) is being celebrated against India's record of 'conspicuous abstention' (Gaza).

If Pakistan is running with the ball, India's handling of the war has been a series of mistakes. It started with an assessment - apparently from the Indian embassy here - that war was not imminent and a PM visit to Israel would be fine. Incidentally, Ben Gurion Airport was bristling with US military planes and hardware the day Narendra Modi landed.

The wise insist India is playing the long game and remains unperturbed by Pakistan's prominence. Besides, the world is changing too fast for intervention on the fly. India is in a 'contemplative mood', calmly nurturing its relationship with the US with regular visits, exploring expansion where possible. Such is the level of calm that Delhi won't cross the Americans even when national interest is at stake - they dispense oil waivers and take them away as they wish.

This is not an argument to pick an unnecessary fight. It's more about finding the right voice register. Last week, Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. India said nothing even though 50% of its crude imports, 60% of its LNG and almost all its LPG supplies come through the waterway.

Why can't the Indian Navy be sent to escort oil tankers to India, especially when it has aided the US Navy in past operations? If India won't exercise authority in a small geographical arc close to home despite a blue water navy, what does it mean to be a regional power? As an analyst reminded me, Mumbai is closer to Chabahar than to Kolkata.

Perhaps there's wisdom in buying more US oil and gas as a diversification strategy and absorbing higher freight costs and longer delivery times. Delhi is facing the energy shock the same way it did sharp insults on trade and tariffs last year.

Indian trade negotiators are here in Washington. They must figure out the future of the framework announced in February before the Supreme Court ruled Trump's emergency tariffs illegal. There's little hope of going below the already negotiated 18% rate for India given the 301(b) investigations against Delhi for 'structural excess capacity' and use of 'forced labour'.

Sergio Gor is pushing hard for wins - buy more US oil. He met Hardeep Puri last week to discuss the energy partnership and 'unlocking new opportunities for accelerating growth'. And the week before, he was doing the rounds in DC, keeping up with Trump and senior cabinet members.

Sometimes, it seems Gor is running the relationship at both ends. He's everywhere hobnobbing with India's most powerful. A former US diplomat who served in Delhi feels GoI 'panders' to him and treats him like a 'mini-Trump'. Indian diplomats find relief in the access Gor has to Trump. Gor keeps India in the news, if only in the Indian media.