India-US ties shift to deal-making as Trump's Iran policy looms

The only sign the India-US relationship retains vestiges of a strategic partnership was when Marco Rubio paid tribute at the 26/11 memorial at Mumbai's Taj Mahal Palace. The official US reaffirmation of India's position on post-9/11, post-26/11 cross-border terrorism could be the one bright spot in an otherwise gloomy relationship at a time when Donald Trump's lovefest with Asim Munir is obvious.

India needs to factor 3 developments into its foreign policy:

Strategic dhandha For a quarter of a century, the US assumed a 'strategic, long-term' view of India. That period is decisively over. India is now smack in the middle of the age of pragmatic deal-making, or 'dhandha' as strategy. That is fine, if Indians realise the field is flexible, with spin, seam and yorkers all being bowled in the same over. Field placement is, therefore, more important than ever, since India cannot afford not to engage with this new phase of the US.


Rubio's meeting with the Ambanis was more animated than his meetings with (Indian and UAE) foreign ministers. The former was about buying Venezuelan oil and a refinery in Texas. The latter ticked boxes, including I2U2 and IMEC, both currently hostage to the Iran war.

Rubio met Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani and N Chandrasekaran (almost 15 Indian corporate bosses had reportedly sought a meeting). It says one important thing: despite turbulence, both countries continue to find reasons to make money together. Energy, infrastructure, defence and technology are touchpoints of the India-US corridor, a good reason for Rubio to have spent time in India twice in 4 months.

India was saved from Russia tariffs for two reasons: someone in the White House decided that Indian oil refineries are a force for good in the world, and that an India trade deal might be a good idea. Leverage is everything. The trade deal will be 'done' when two things are reconciled - certainty on India tariffs and a roadmap to reduce the US trade deficit.

Meanwhile, India is due to sign trade deals with Canada and the EU in December. So, it can afford to wait for a favourable landing point with the US. Modi will be in Canada, US, and EU in December - 2 out of 3 trade deals would be an acceptable record. It's a good way to deal with the US, and India is proving to be a quick learner.

Rethink diaspora policy For future stability of its US relationship, India needs to rethink its diaspora policy, beyond the previous pomp. Whether it's Trump-Vance Republicans, or Socialist Democrats, MAGA is now baked into the very notion of the US. It threads through an anti-immigrant sentiment, which has a strong race component and is particularly targeted against Indians. It also has a 'success' component that will turn on Indians in a heartbeat. Indians are the most successful, least troublesome, but most in-your-face. For the average American, they got rich by taking American jobs.

India needs to differentiate between the MAGA sentiment that targets India, and the one that targets Indian Americans. The latter are American citizens and have political recourse in their adopted country. Let it not become New Delhi's headache. It might put a spanner into Modi's diaspora outreach. But, hey, his first responsibility is to Indian citizens.

India should act on visa policies that target Indian citizens unfairly, and ensure they face a level playing field in whichever country they choose to work in. Trump's H-1B visa restrictions are not actually unfair. Neither is his campaign against illegal immigration.

No U-turn The upcoming US midterm elections and anticipated GOP reverses are unlikely to change much in Trump's foreign policy. Instead, they may free him to take a maximalist approach on Iran, freed from domestic political considerations.

Certainly, Tehran expects it. Given the speed at which US personnel are emptying out of the Gulf, another bruising round in the coming days is expected. It won't break Tehran, or its military leaders. But whether Iran destroys submarine cables or energy infrastructure in the region, the consequences will be catastrophic.

Modi has clearly cautioned Netanyahu against adventurism. China and Russia are also hoping to put the brakes on Iran, as evidenced by Sergey Lavrov and Wang Yi's recent meetings with the Iranians. It's important for India to play a role now. Trump doesn't have the smarts to get out of the war. Iran is bent on vengeance, and Israel is too trigger-happy for its own good.

Meanwhile, Yalta 2.0 is coming - as Trump, Xi and Putin potentially head for a trilateral meeting in Shenzhen in November, a meeting that Putin and Xi will take advantage of while Trump will spew rhetoric. Don't expect a resolution to either the Russia-Ukraine or US-Iran war. But it will be a powerful message to the world.

The Quad summit in Manila will precede the Shenzhen trilateral. With Australia and Japan, India needs to be a more proactive player in Quad to give Trump a plan, something more than bombast, to take to Shenzhen. The future global order cannot remain to the advantage of Russia or China. For a more favourable order, India needs to play a bigger game, with the US.

India is the biggest power in this region. It has huge equities. It's time it got off the sidelines. The war should not be allowed to continue.