He’s Pac-Man, or Pax Man? Trump’s war-peace pivot keeps Iran and markets on edge

It’s Week 4, and signals of peace are in the air. Or, more appropriately, hints of compromise. The US and Israel have relentlessly pounded Iran for three weeks, yet faced serious retaliation and ballistic missiles coming their way.

Gulf countries have suffered physical and psychological damage, the mirage of being tax and luxury havens lies shattered along with the glass covering. They are reportedly moving closer to joining the fight. But they realise their investment in America has not exactly translated into influence over Trump’s decision-making — he didn’t veto Israel’s target list. Gulf countries had warned against attacks on Iran’s oil fields, but Israel attacked the South Pars gas field anyway, which led to Tehran’s retaliation against important Arab energy facilities.

Trump is looking for ways to exit, but he is also sending more men and firepower to the region. The mixed signals won’t inspire confidence in Tehran —it has Hormuz-sized leverage, battered though it may be. The strait has to reopen for the US to declare victory.


It is in this fading light that one should look at Trump’s latest moves at deal-making. On Monday, before the markets opened, he announced a 5-day pause in the war after claiming ‘productive’ talks with Iran and hinting at ‘a very serious chance’ for a deal. Oil prices dropped, stocks jumped and the markets rallied. Depending on what he says on the fifth day after the markets close, the world will have a clearer sense of US motives.

This time, VP J D Vance, a known war sceptic and potential inheritor of Trump’s crown, has been added to the negotiating team of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, two real estate men in charge of complex political negotiations around the world. US nuclear experts have exposed the duo’s inexperience in nuclear matters and how they failed to understand the complexities of Iran’s offer on enriched uranium. Everyone interested in peace is hoping for real experts to be included in the team this time around.


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At first blush, Tehran called Trump’s latest deal-making ‘psychological warfare’, market manipulation, and an effort to buy time for his military plans. It’s true that 5,000 Marines are headed to the war theatre along with more ships and sailors. A show of American power? The exhibition is not aimed just at Iran but others (read: China and Russia) as well.

Speaker of Iran’s parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is being projected in the US media as an interlocutor, said on X that Trump’s offer was designed to ‘escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped’. Be that as it may, social media is an active battlefield alongside the real one.

If America’s war on Iraq was ‘brought to you live’ by embedded reporters marvelling at smart bombs exploding, this one is about clever memes and impressive posts on X. Iranian officials are trolling Trump in English, some of it actually funny. But the more serious battle is over who can put out longer, more data-filled feeds on X. AI-aided stars of the game can connect dots you never saw or knew existed.

Pro-Trump experts see a grand design in the incessant flow of contradictory announcements from the president. Peace one day, obliteration the next is a master politician at work simultaneously speaking to different audiences: oil and stock markets, MAGA faithful, the religious right and world leaders. He times his posts for real-life advantage.


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But is something stirring even if real motives are cloudy? Are all parties on board, especially Israel? Iranian officials have acknowledged messages were exchanged through Egypt and Türkiye in which they laid out their conditions — no future aggression, reparations and recognition of their legitimate rights (which could stretch from Hormuz to uranium enrichment to lifting of sanctions).

Pakistan is playing mediator, successfully parleying its multi-engagement in the region and with Washington for better survival conditions. No mean achievement. Reports say the talks are likely to be held in Islamabad this week. In short, Asim Munir has managed to defer the dilemma of choosing between Saudi Arabia, an all-weather provider with a mutual security pact, and Iran, a neighbour that can punish, if necessary.

India, with multiple stakes, old friendships in the region and a ‘strategic partnership’ with the US, had chosen to limit its diplomacy to getting tankers out of Hormuz — that is, until Tuesday, when Narendra Modi and S Jaishankar spoke to Trump and Marco Rubio respectively, Sergio Gor almost certainly arranging the first exchange after Pakistani-US inter-action may have caused New Delhi heartburn.

Meanwhile, Pakistan with limited resources has burrowed deeper into Trump’s world and West Asia’s complex matrix.