Global trade shifts could create a ‘New Club Med’ for emerging markets

The conflict in West Asia has ushered in a period of significant international instability. Alongside the tragedy of war, profound effects on global economic balances are also emerging.

Tensions affecting the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz highlight the vulnerability of some of the world's main arteries of international trade. The ongoing crisis is already exerting strong inflationary pressure on gas, oil and other strategic goods such as fertilisers, with knock-on effects on global food prices. When these critical hubs are exposed to geopolitical tensions, urgency of strengthening security and diversification of trade routes becomes clear.

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Europe has faced a similar challenge. Russia's aggression against Ukraine necessitated a rapid diversification of energy supply sources. Within a few months, we re-evaluated infrastructure, supply chains and partnerships to ensure security and continuity for our economic systems. Today, the crisis in West Asia calls for a comparable reflection regarding trade routes. In this context, India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) takes on particular importance.

This is not merely a line on a map, but a potential reorganisation of logistical networks and industrial value chains connecting India, the Gulf and Europe, capable of reshaping trade flows and reinforcing the Mediterranean's role as a strategic hub linking Asia and Europe, with potential benefits for Italy estimated at up to €26 bn ($29.8 bn).

When global trade routes change, economic geographies change as well. New commercial corridors create new logistical and productive hinterlands: territories that attract investment, host distribution centres and develop industrial activities connected to international value chains. If one of the main European gateways for these routes is the Mediterranean - in particular, the Northern Adriatic - its natural reach cannot be limited to Western European markets alone. It will inevitably extend to Central Europe and the Western Balkans, which serve as the geographical and infrastructural bridge between the Mediterranean and heart of the continent.

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Owing to their geographical position, proximity to European markets and progressive alignment with EU standards, the Western Balkans can become an integral part of this new logistics architecture - not merely a transit area but a genuine economic hinterland for routes connecting Asia and Europe, capable of attracting investment and strengthening regional value chains. The region's infra will also benefit from this evolution, helping to manage and distribute a portion of the commercial flows arriving in Europe via the corridor.

Within this scenario, the Mediterranean once again assumes strategic centrality. Italy, due to its geographical position, serves as a logistics platform connecting Europe, Asia and Africa. Its port system represents one of Europe's major strategic infrastructures - an extensive network linking the Mediterranean to Europe's main economic and industrial corridors.

Within this system, the Northern Adriatic occupies a privileged position in connecting the Mediterranean with Central Europe. Trieste, by virtue of its history, location and infrastructure links, represents one of the most natural hubs within this network. It is, therefore, no coincidence that Trieste is hosting two important events dedicated to regional cooperation and emerging economic routes today: celebrations marking the 30th anniversary of the Central European Initiative (CEI), and a forum on IMEC.

These occasions will provide an opportunity to discuss the future of connectivity between the Mediterranean, Balkans and Central Europe, with the participation of ministers from Balkan countries, senior representatives of states involved in IMEC, and business leaders, highlighting the strategic role of this region in developing new logistics and industrial value chains between Asia and Europe.

Strengthening the links between the Mediterranean, Europe and the Indo-Pacific enhances the economic security of our continent. In this new geography of global trade routes, Italy can play a leading role.