Election 2014: Will Narendra Modi give Gujarat Chief Minister a free hand?

By Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay


If Narendra Modi gets a mandate and moves to Delhi, how will Gujarat adjust without the man who determined perceptions about it over the past 12 years? Equally important, how will Modi adjust to a political existence without hands-on control over a state’s destiny that catalysed his meteoric rise?

During election campaign, Modi used Gujarat as a metaphor for the ‘unattainable’ if his adversaries remained in power at the Centre.

But if strings of power were handed over to him, he argued, Promised Land will no longer be utopia. It is therefore important that public perception of Gujarat as an efficiently administered land, where the proverbial rivers of milk flow, should continue to ensure Modi’s CV remaining unblemished.

For procedural purposes, Modi will have to resign as Gujarat CM and oversee installation of a new CM before taking oath as PM. Firstly, he will have to identify a replacement before election as leader of legislative party by a legitimate process so it does not formally appear as personal nomination.

When Modi’s campaign shifted to the top gear some months ago, he set up an unofficial consultative group of ministers — Anandiben Patel, Saurabh Patel, Nitin Patel and Bhupendrasinh Chudasama — to manage affairs on a daily basis.

The quartet reportedly discussed key issues but secured Modi’s endorsement before implementing decisions.

Among the four, Anandiben is considered as having the best chance of succeeding Modi office mainly because of close personal ties and being the staunchest of Modi loyalists. But the final choice may be someone else. However, whoever takes charge will have to contend with rivals because no one besides Modi transcends factions.

Modi made it known recently that he would prefer the new CM to be a sitting MLA. This suggests that he wishes to preclude the possibility of a RSS-nominated pracharak from taking over and gaining control over the state unit, just as he once did. Modi would not want history to repeat itself on this score. In early years of his tenure, Modi faced high levels of dissidence which had tacit support from RSS.

He was able to overcome this completely only in 2007 but anti-Modi sentiment remains prevalent. It stays dormant in Gujarat only because of Modi’s iron hand. The new CM is likely to face dissidence after the end of the honeymoon period. This turbulence will harm Modi for two reasons. Firstly, it will affix on him the image of a leader who did not build institutions by ensuring smooth takeover.

Secondly, political turmoil in Gujarat would distract him and force him to expend time and energy to Gujarat when he needs to be focussed on other issues.

It is difficult to see the absence of Modi’s hand even after he moves to the Centre. The new CM would owe existence to him every moment and majority of MLAs shall remain loyal to Modi first and only then to the proxy. It may lead to creation of a dual power centre which may slow down decision making. Also, will Modi allow his famed singlewindow clearance system to be manned by someone else? The question becomes significant because most of Modi’s sources for resources at his command during the campaign have deep-rooted business interests in Gujarat.

Barring Modi, there is no second ranked mass leader capable of leading BJP to any victory. This could be the moment that Congress — or AAP — can siege and use Modi’s absence to rejuvenate or build the party. Local polls for Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation are due in the last quarter of 2015. It would be worthwhile to recall that Modi’s first electoral assignment as RSS pracharak was overseeing BJP’s campaign in AMC elections in 1986.

Modi delivered by reversing the party’s decimation in 1984 parliamentary election with a two-third majority for BJP in the civic body.

Gujarat will face the problem of coping with a proactive super-boss besides the hands-on CM. Will Modi be able to rid himself of his natural trait and emerge as a statesman who is not insecure about losing control of his pocket borough?