Centre-state Patnaship: What powered the NDA tsunami & sank the MGB in Bihar

Paris: Voters in Bihar have opted for continuity, delivering NDA a resounding victory over Mahagathbandhan (MGB). Nitish Kumar, NDA's presumptive chief ministerial nominee, is now poised to assume office for the 10th time, an unprecedented record for any CM in India since 1947.

In vote share, NDA gets 47% of the votes, its best-ever performance, while MGB holds under 38%. But in terms of seats, the opposition has been decimated, winning only 30 seats compared to 114 in 2020. RJD, though still narrowly the largest party in terms of votes, delivers its second-worst performance, securing 25 seats.

Within NDA, BJP surpasses its partner JD(U) in both vote share and number of seats. Together, NDA breaches the symbolic 200-seat mark, gaining 85 seats relative to the last election. It also makes gains compared to the 2024 general election, winning in 30 additional assembly segments.


Opposition failure: They failed to attract new or non-aligned voters, and to establish a broad social coalition against the incumbent. In Bihar, where caste remains central to behaviour at the constituency level, electoral strategy hinges on cultivating a core support base and expanding beyond it. RJD continues to rely on a narrow two-group strategy - Yadavs and Muslims - a core too small to deliver state-wide victory on its own. Congress, distant fourth in terms of vote share, lacks a core support group.

By contrast, NDA's core brings together a wide spectrum of backward groups, including forward OBCs and EBCs, mahadalits, and upper castes. Even if we assume that a majority of Yadav and Muslim voters backed RJD or its partners, the combination is numerically insufficient. Narrow caste strategies only work when both sides pursue them.

No meaningful differentiation: A comparison of manifestos of the two alliances shows few substantive differences in promises and schemes offered to voters. The figures attached to distributive schemes may vary, but not enough to establish a clear contrast. As a result, voters were left to choose between what they had and the limited additional benefits they might receive from a hypothetical new government.

The one major policy distinction between NDA and MGB lies in their approach to caste. While NDA has sought to downplay caste as a principle of governance, the opposition attempted to place it at the centre of its agenda. This strategy failed to yield electoral gains for two key reasons:

• The opposition's narrative on caste justice in Bihar is undermined by the alignment of its main component, RJD, with Yadavs, who are synonymous with local dominance.
• JD(U) and BJP draw support from a wide array of backward groups, including non-dominant OBCs and dalits, blunting the opposition's attempt to frame the contest along the axis of backward-class identity. In Bihar, the conventional binaries between 'haves' and 'have-nots', or the Mandal/Kamandal divide, do not operate. Given the socioeconomic profile of the electorate in Bihar, there are poor voters across alliances, leaving little space for the backward-forward logic that once defined Mandal politics.
• Other factors may also have contributed to the opposition's rout, including the behaviour of women voters, or choices of young voters, who did not rally en masse behind RJD's comparatively youthful leader. In the absence of reliable survey data, however, these questions remain open. Likewise, the impact of SIR cannot yet be assessed.

What is clear is that MGB failed to give voters compelling reasons to support it. Its lack of cohesion and public display of internal politicking during the campaign only compounded this problem.

Nationally, these results offer welcome relief to BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose credit had been diminished by the 2024 general election, and a series of recent setbacks on the international stage. This victory enables BJP to craft a narrative of renewed strength as the country enters the next electoral cycle.

For the opposition, by contrast, the Bihar result will become emblematic of how they squandered the momentum gained in the Lok Sabha election. Congress' disastrous performance will reinforce the perception that it is an unreliable, even toxic, ally.

For Congress, this election also underscores that mobilising primarily around electoral integrity issues does not yield an electoral dividend. This is not an argument for abandoning principled causes, but a reminder that moral positioning alone can't rebuild its credibility with voters.

For Bihar, the implications are more ambiguous. NDA has succeeded in retaining power for over two decades, yet, it has failed to lift the state from the bottom of most socioeconomic indicators. There have been genuine gains in social policy and infrastructure. But the fundamental drivers of Bihar's persistent underdevelopment remain unaddressed.

If anything, this victory provides no incentives to do politics any differently. This means that for the vast majority of young Biharis, the most dependable route to developmental opportunity will still lie beyond the state's borders.