A win that defied all odds

Panama City: In the week leading up to the second round of elections on Oct 25, the most popular hashtag on Brazilian social media was #LulaVaiVirar, a rallying cry proclaiming that 'Lula will turn things around' after trailing in the first round. This was accompanied by massive rallies, drawing as many as 3 mn people across Sao Paulo's Avenida Paulista and Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana, to display their support for Luiz Inacio 'Lula' da Silva, an octogenarian, 3-time president running for office yet again.

To many, this last-ditch effort seemed implausible, as Lula received 2.2 mn fewer votes than his opponent Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round on Oct 4. All major pundits and pollsters forecast a Bolsonaro win. But the massive swell of street supporters and social media traction ultimately made the difference. Lula has now become the first-ever Brazilian presidential candidate to win the run-off after trailing in the first round, doing so by a comfortable margin of 4.4 mn votes.

Read more: Lula's re-election revives Brazil-US tensions


Lula's victory is a testament to his adaptive political spirit. He lost the first 3 elections he contested in 1989, 1994 and 1998. Since then, he has moderated and compromised when necessary, even if begrudgingly so, and has been elected president in 2002, 2006, 2022 and 2026. He has evolved with each election.

In 2022, he partnered a former opposition candidate he defeated at the ballot box in 2006, the pro-business Geraldo Alckmin. In 2026, Lula put his faith in Andre Janones, a millennial congressman from Minas Gerais. Janones transformed Lula's digital communications strategy, epitomised by the WhatsApp channel 'Ejercito de Lula' (Lula's Army) that amassed 10.7 mn followers in less than 3 weeks.

This complemented the massive street mobilisations that Lula's Workers' Party (known as 'PT' in Portuguese) is known for and helped increase voter turnout. Janones also turned around Lula's fortunes in Minas Gerais, helping him win the state after trailing by 5% in the first round. Fittingly, both Alckmin and Janones were handed the microphone during Lula's victory speech, with Alckmin entrusted yet again with serving as V-P.

Lula's victory has implications beyond Planalto, Brazil's presidential palace. Notably, Lula can now appoint 4 new justices to Brazil's Supreme Federal Court. The government's power, however, will be kept in check by the right-wing opposition's control of Brazil's Congress, where Bolsonaro's Liberal Party has the largest share in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The opposition could stall reforms or even call for the impeachment of Lula's allies in the apex court.

While the opposition will keep the government on its toes, Brazil has a long history of centrist parties (Centrao) working with both sides of the aisle to pass important reforms, and Lula is known as an effective dealmaker.

The economy poses an additional challenge: Bolsonaro's loss has had an immediate impact on market and investor sentiment, with the Brazilian real falling 11% and the stock market crashing 17% the day after the election.

Outside Brazil, Lula's victory has sent ripples globally, particularly in Latin America. The win represents a symbolic victory against what some call a 'conservative wave' of governments that have been elected in the region recently.

Right-wing leaders who ideologically oppose Lula, including those in Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Paraguay and Peru, all congratulated him promptly. Only Argentina's and El Salvador's presidents have yet to do so.

Only a couple of hours after the results were announced, Narendra Modi congratulated his 'dear friend' Lula on a 'remarkable re-election victory', pledging to 'further deepen and expand the multifaceted India-Brazil Strategic Partnership'.

Although many Indians unfamiliar with the Latin American region tend to associate Brazil's relationship with New Delhi with BRICS and G20, the India-Brazil bilateral relationship is significant and stands on its own.

In fact, India's exports to Brazil surpass those to Japan, South Korea, Russia and Canada. More than 200 Indian companies operate in Brazil, investing as much as $15 bn. Brazil is India's third-largest destination globally for upstream oil investments. Like most strategic partnerships, India-Brazil relations will continue to grow regardless of the ideology of the government in power in either country.

This election will be remembered for many things. But one fact buried in the news probably deserves more attention: a labour politician who spent half a century rallying people behind him finally decided to focus on the digital world, buying his first-ever smartphone only last week. This reminds us that future elections will likely be won or lost on social media.

The writer is co-founder, Consilium Group