UK student visa refusals for Indian applicants rise to 8%, complicating international recruitment for universities

The UK’s student visa refusal rate for Indian applicants has risen to an average of eight per cent over the last three quarters, putting India among seven countries that account for more than 70 per cent of all student visa refusals, according to an analysis done by The PIE.

The other countries on the list are Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Ghana and Sri Lanka. These are high-volume student markets where refusal rates have exceeded the UK government’s five per cent threshold under its new BCA metrics.

The sustained rise in refusals could create difficulties for UK universities that depend on international student recruitment, particularly institutions drawing a large share of their students from these seven countries.


Also read: UK student visa refusals rise: What tougher rules mean for Indian students?

India’s inclusion raises concerns for UK universities

India is the UK’s largest source market for international students. Its inclusion in the high-risk group is a concern for the higher education sector, as universities may face greater risks when recruiting students from the country.

Although stopping recruitment from India is considered unlikely, universities face risks linked to certain regions within the country, according to The PIE’s analysis.

Visa refusal rates have increased at different points for different nationalities over the past three quarters. However, the rolling 12-month average has continued to rise, with no sign of rates returning to lower levels despite universities increasing their compliance activities.

Other countries, including Kenya and Iran, have recorded refusal rates above 50 per cent, but their application volumes are much lower.

Some UK universities have already stopped recruitment from entire countries, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ghana and Sri Lanka, in recent months.

In the second quarter of 2026, visa refusals for Nigerian and Ghanaian applicants rose sharply to their highest levels in the previous 12 months.

University sources told The PIE that the increase could be linked to a backlog of applications awaiting decisions for more than three months being refused at the same time. However, the publication said it could not independently verify this explanation.

Universities differ in their dependence on high-risk markets

Using Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data for 2024-25, the PIE examined universities’ international student intake and their dependence on the seven countries generating the highest number of refusals.

Also read: UK study visa refusals impact university offers for foreign students: Report

The University of Hertfordshire enrolled 11,415 international students, with 92 per cent of its recruitment dependent on these markets. Coventry University enrolled 9,935, with 84 per cent dependence, while the University of East London enrolled 8,620, with 94 per cent dependence.

Ulster University enrolled 7,295 international students, with 84 per cent dependence, while the University of the West of Scotland enrolled 5,175, with 95 per cent dependence.

Other universities with high dependence included the University of Sunderland, at 78 per cent, and the University of Greenwich, at 76 per cent.

By contrast, Russell Group universities generally had lower dependence on the seven markets. University College London enrolled 15,100 international students, with five per cent dependence, while the University of Manchester enrolled 9,970, with 10 per cent. King’s College London enrolled 8,775, with 10 per cent dependence.

The University of Sunderland, which had 78 per cent dependence on the seven markets in 2024-25, recently announced annual budget cuts of more than £40 million in response to falling international student numbers.

China and other markets have refusal rates below one per cent

The PIE additionally identified 16 markets where student visa refusal rates remain below 1 per cent: China, the United States, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Kuwait, South Korea, Canada, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore, Germany, France, Spain and Italy.

In 2024-25, Russell Group universities received 67 per cent of all enrolments from these lower-risk markets. The group also enrolled 38 per cent of all new international entrants in the same year.