Nearly half of international students would skip the US if visas lose their flexibility

The United States has long been a top destination for international students, drawing talent from around the world with its leading universities, research opportunities, and post-study work options. However, recent data and surveys suggest that this position is under threat. International student arrivals fell sharply this summer, with data showing a nearly 50% decline in students from India—the largest source country for US foreign students—during July and August 2025 compared to the same period last year. Official ADIS/I-94 data from the US International Trade Administration shows a 46.4% decline in July (from 24,298 to 13,027 students) and a 44.5% decline in August (from 74,825 to 41,540).

These months are particularly critical because they mark the arrival of most first-time students before the new academic year. Universities have reported steep declines: Saint Louis University recorded 45% fewer foreign students this fall, the University of Cincinnati reported a 25% drop in graduate-level international students, and the University at Buffalo saw over 1,000 fewer international graduate students, mostly in STEM programs. Overall, excluding Canada and Mexico, international student arrivals fell 19.2% between August 2024 and August 2025, with sharp declines from China (12.4%), South Korea (10.9%), and Vietnam (17.2%).

Amid this backdrop, a 2025 survey by the Institute for Progress and NAFSA: Association of International Educators indicates that nearly half of current international students would have reconsidered enrolling in the US if the Department of Homeland Security replaced the current Duration of Status (D/S) system with a fixed period of admission. The D/S system allows students to remain in the US as long as they are progressing normally toward completing their academic programs. A fixed admission period would limit authorized stay to a set timeframe and require students to apply for extensions, potentially deterring many prospective students and further shrinking the US talent pipeline.


Impact of Ending Duration of Status
Under the current D/S framework, international students can maintain legal status throughout their program, provided they make normal academic progress. This flexibility is particularly important for graduate and postdoctoral students in longer or research-intensive programs. The survey found that 49% of respondents would not have enrolled in the US if a fixed admission period had been in place. "Ending Duration of Status would deter enrollment," the report notes, emphasizing that replacing D/S could sharply reduce the pool of international students.

The demographics of the survey highlight the potential impact: 49% of respondents were PhD students, 26% were postdoctoral fellows, and the majority were in STEM fields—35% in physical or natural sciences, 19% in biological and biomedical sciences, and 16% in engineering. These groups represent the core of US research talent, particularly in disciplines where international students are heavily relied upon for innovation and lab-based work.

Post-graduation plans also underscore the importance of policy flexibility. Under current rules, 36% of respondents said they would definitely try to stay in the US after completing their programs, while 28% said they probably would. Only 12% indicated they would definitely or probably not try to stay, with the remainder uncertain. Changes to D/S could disrupt these intentions, affecting both enrollment and retention of international talent.

Concerns Over Optional Practical Training and H-1B Access
Optional Practical Training (OPT) remains a major factor in international students’ decisions to study in the US. OPT allows graduates to work in the US for a limited period after completing their studies, providing a bridge to long-term employment opportunities. The survey found that 54% of respondents would not have enrolled if OPT had been rescinded. Among students who were likely to stay under current rules, 57% of master’s students, 49% of PhD students, and 33% of postdocs said they would be unlikely to remain without OPT.

H-1B visa allocation rules also influence enrollment decisions. About 53% of respondents said they would not have enrolled if access to H-1B visas were determined by wage levels instead of the current lottery-based system. Among master’s students likely to stay, 48% reported they would not attempt to remain if H-1B access were tied to wages. These findings highlight the critical link between post-study work options and the US’s ability to attract top international talent.

Prospective Students’ Intentions
The survey also collected data from 611 prospective international students, with 19% considering a Bachelor’s degree, 50% a Master’s degree, and 18% a PhD. Even at the enrollment planning stage, Duration of Status influences decisions. If D/S were replaced with a fixed admission period, 57% of prospective students said they would likely enroll, compared to 67% under current rules. This 16% drop demonstrates how policy changes could deter students before they even apply.

Prospective students cited flexibility and work options as key factors in choosing US programs. Many weigh post-study employment opportunities, including OPT and H-1B eligibility, when deciding where to study. Reductions in these options could therefore reduce the overall inflow of international talent, impacting the country’s academic and research ecosystem.

Employer Concerns Over Talent Access
The survey also included responses from 75 US employers, covering small firms (33%), medium-sized companies (43%), and large multinational firms (24%). About 31% of employers filed fewer than five H-1B petitions annually, 43% filed between 5 and 99, and 27% filed 100 or more. Employers expressed concern that visa policy changes could limit their ability to hire international talent, particularly in STEM fields.

Many employers rely on international graduates to fill specialized roles that are in short supply domestically. Changes to D/S, OPT, or H-1B access could disrupt hiring pipelines and increase recruitment costs, creating uncertainty for both companies and students considering US programs.

Implications for US Research and Innovation
The survey’s findings suggest that US competitiveness in research and innovation could be affected. With a significant portion of respondents in STEM fields, any decline in enrollment could impact research output, project timelines, and university rankings. Flexible visa policies, such as D/S and OPT, are essential for attracting and retaining international students who contribute to scientific discoveries, technology development, and broader economic growth.

International students also help diversify the academic and professional workforce, creating cross-cultural collaboration that fuels innovation. Limiting their ability to remain in the US could reduce this critical exchange of knowledge and talent.