Australia may face further dip in international student numbers as visa demand weakens, costs rise

Australia is likely to see a further decline in international student numbers in the coming period, driven by weaker visa demand, higher application costs and rising refusal rates, according to a report by ICEF Monitor.

Multiple indicators point to pressure on Australia’s international education sector, particularly in English-language training (ELICOS) and vocational education and training (VET), as per the ICEF Monitor report. It will also emerge challenges for universities, especially from key source markets such as China, India, Nepal and Bangladesh.

According to ICEF report, “several student visa trends paint a troubling picture of future international enrolments in Australia” and added that “aside from those enrolling in higher education, the number of new students coming into the country is not enough to replenish the number who are leaving.”

Visa fee rise and policy tightening weigh on demand

The slowdown is linked to policy tightening over the past three years, including higher visa application fees and stricter controls on student inflows. Australia’s student visa application fee has reached AU$2,000, described as the highest globally.

According to the report, student visa applications fell by 32% between 2023 and 2025.

In higher education, enrolments rose by 9.7% between 2024 and 2025, but the sector is now seeing pressure from falling demand in China and high visa refusal rates in other major markets. Applications from China have dropped sharply in early 2026, while rejection rates remain high for applicants from India, Nepal and Bangladesh.

ICEF Monitor said rising costs and visa uncertainty are discouraging students, particularly those applying for shorter courses such as English-language programmes.

According to the report, current trends are likely to continue unless policy and demand conditions change, raising concerns for Australia’s international education pipeline in the coming years.