Will NRIs be the kingmaker in upcoming Canada's federal elections?

Canada Federal Elections for the members to the lower house of the parliament are due to be held on 20th September 2021. It was announced earlier than scheduled by the current Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau. He heads a minority Liberal Government.

The other key parties are:

• Conservatives, the main opposition
• New Democratic Party
• Green
• Bloc Québécois

The last one is dedicated to Quebec Nationalism and Sovereignty. Though an important player and a major province, Quebec has limited scope to rule at a federal level because of its province-focused politics. Green has awareness but often does not get beyond a limited number. And in walks the New Democratic Party(NDP). The leader of NDP is none other than Mr. Jagmeet Singh, an Indian Origin Canadian. The election trends indicate that outside of the liberal and conservatives, NDP is considered the most nationally based political party.


Mr. Jagmeet Singh has been active on the Canadian political landscape. His leadership, influence, and politics are not limited to the Indian community.

The snap polls were called early by Justin Trudeau in confidence that his Covid related benefits to Canadians in general and Canadian businesses, in particular, go in favour of the liberals. In fact, at the time of poll announcements, he did carry an advantage over the competing parties, but unexpected developments in Afghanistan came. Another critical factor is housing, which is going out of reach for the younger generation of voters. They constitute a significant voting bloc in these elections. The voters may be looking for an alternate, and opposition is catching up to Liberals. Mr. Erin O'Toole, the conservative party leader, is getting the attention of undecided, young, and centrist voters.

Mr. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP has significant recognition and base in two of Canada's largest and most populated provinces – British Columbia and Ontario. Being a member of the last parliament has helped him in broadening his mass appeal and base. To say that Indian or Asian votes alone will get be incorrect. Indians constitute just around 4% of the total Canadian Population. But what makes them significant is that they like to use the opportunity to vote!! That makes their votes very crucial to every party. All provinces like Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta, and Manitoba carry heavy political weight. Will all of them vote for NDP just because Mr. Jagmeet Singh leads it? Of course not, but will he gain in a close race? The odds are that he may.

The latest trends indicate that it is becoming a closer race between the Conservatives and Liberals than expected. And as it happens in Indian politics, the parties with small but crucial seats hold the levers of power. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been running a minority government even during the last term. At the time of writing this article, it looks closer than last elections. Either of the two major parties may come to power but may still not have the numbers to form a majority government. Should that happen, the party with the higher number of seats will need open or non-opposing support from smaller parties. And, support of Mr. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP may just turn out to be crucial to form and sustain the government through its full term. Rest the time will tell.

September 20th, 2021, is not that far off. And if at all Mr. Justin Trudeau not be able to come to power again, it may prove one thing, though: Doles may always need not turn into votes!!