US midterm elections: What a Democratic Congress could mean for Indian H-1B visa holders

A Democratic majority in the US Congress could change the political debate around immigration, but it is unlikely to bring immediate relief to Indian technology professionals facing uncertainty over H-1B visas and employment-based green cards.

Immigration experts believe a Democratic victory could moderate anti-immigration rhetoric and bring greater attention to the contribution of skilled foreign workers to the US economy. However, any significant policy changes are likely to take longer because President Donald Trump will continue to control federal immigration agencies.

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Stephen Yale-Loehr, retired professor of immigration law practice at Cornell Law School, said a change in congressional control would not immediately lead to immigration reform.

"President Trump is still president, and he controls the immigration agencies. Even if the Democrats pass positive immigration laws, President Trump can veto them. However, the Democrats can hold hearings and investigations to try to persuade the US public that immigration benefits, not hurts, the country. That way they will lay the groundwork for possible true immigration reform in 2029, assuming the Democrats control Congress then and there is a Democratic president then," he said.

David J Bier, director of Immigration Studies at Cato Institute, also expects little immediate change.

Also read: US midterms: Trump leaves the door ajar for Democrats on immigration

"It will have almost no immediate effect because Republicans still have enough votes to block most immigration bills in the Senate, and even if they didn't, Trump would veto bills that block his agenda," he said.

Cyrus D Mehta, managing partner of New York-based law firm Cyrus D Mehta & Partners, said Trump would retain executive powers even if Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. The administration could continue with measures affecting H-1B fees and restrictions on employment-based immigration.

"Trump will not be able to get legislation through Congress to endorse his executive actions if there are no Republican majorities. In any event, it would have been difficult for him to do so even now without 60 votes in the Senate, If the new Democratic majorities pass bills in Congress in 2026, Trump will have the power to veto them," Mehta said.

However, he expects greater congressional scrutiny of immigration decisions. Officials would have to justify their policies before oversight committees, and USCIS decisions rejecting H-1B petitions without sufficient grounds could come under investigation.

Mehta also said the change in political control in Texas and Georgia could affect the administration's legal support in litigation concerning the $100,000 H-1B fee.

Indian IT companies reduce dependence on H-1B visas

The debate comes as Indian technology companies gradually increase local hiring in the US and reduce their dependence on overseas work visas.

According to IT industry body Nasscom, H-1B visas issued to leading Indian and India-centric companies declined from 14,792 in 2015 to 10,162 in 2024.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) had around 11,000 H-1B employees within its US workforce of 32,000-33,000 as of October last year.

Microsoft also reported that 80% of approximately 6,000 H-1B applications filed in the previous financial year were for extensions or changes in the status of existing employees. Applications for new hires accounted for just 1% of its US workforce and involved people already legally present in the country.

Nasscom maintains that H-1B is a high-skilled worker mobility programme that helps US businesses address specialised skill shortages. Indian technology companies contribute around $103 billion to the US economy and support more than 500,000 jobs across 25 states, according to the industry body.

Research highlights economic contribution of skilled immigrants

Research cited by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) has also challenged the argument that H-1B workers displace American employees.

A study by economist Madeline Zavodny found that H-1B workers do not adversely affect US workers. Their presence was instead associated with lower unemployment rates and faster earnings growth among college graduates, including recent graduates.

The research found that a one percentage point increase in the share of H-1B workers in an occupation was associated with an increase of 0.1 to 0.26 percentage points in the earnings growth rate for workers in that occupation.

Another NFAP study estimated that avoiding the rejection of 178,000 H-1B applications in 2007 and 2008 because of the annual cap could have helped US metropolitan areas create as many as 231,224 additional jobs for US-born technology workers.

Based on H-1B petitions in computer-related occupations rejected because of the annual cap in FY24 and FY25, NFAP estimated that a substantially higher annual limit could have supported up to 615,000 additional jobs for US-born technology workers.

Immigration could also have fiscal benefits. Research by former Congressional Budget Office director Douglas Elmendorf and Dartmouth economics professor Heidi Williams found that exempting STEM master's and PhD holders from employment-based green card limits could reduce the US federal budget deficit by $634 billion over 20 years.

For Indian professionals, a Democratic majority could therefore mean greater scrutiny of immigration restrictions and a more supportive political debate. However, changes to H-1B rules, fees and green card limits are unlikely to happen immediately.

Report by Shipa Padnis, TOI