More immigrants leaving US than arriving, first time since the 1930s

For the first time in decades, the United States is seeing more immigrants leave than enter, according to new research by the Pew Research Center. The analysis of census data shows that the foreign-born population declined by nearly 1.5 million between January and June this year. The total number of immigrants in the country fell to 51.9 million in June, down from 53.3 million six months earlier, according to a report by New York Times.

Officials in the Trump administration have welcomed the shift, saying the decline has reduced pressure on public services and improved job markets. Supporters of tighter immigration rules argue that stricter measures are necessary, while critics warn of long-term economic and demographic risks.

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Pew researchers found that both lawful and unlawful residents are part of the decline, though the scale of departures among immigrants without legal status is harder to measure. Jeffrey Passel, Pew’s chief demographer, said the trend points to a “demographic certainty” in 2025, though data may underestimate the true decline due to immigrants’ reluctance to participate in surveys.

Experts note that the US last experienced negative net migration in the 1930s, during the Great Depression, when hundreds of thousands of Mexicans and Mexican Americans left. Today, the fall in immigration is being driven not by economic downturn but by policy.

President Donald Trump campaigned on mass deportations and has since tightened asylum rules, restricted visas for students and skilled workers, and increased detentions and deportations. He recently hailed the decline in a Truth Social post: “Promises made. Promises kept. Negative net migration for the first time in 50 years!”

The new policies have also affected legal immigration. Refugee admissions have been paused, visa screening has intensified, and several temporary protection programs have ended. Thousands are set to lose status in the coming months.

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Some immigrants are choosing to leave voluntarily through a self-deportation program. Lillian Divina Leite, a 46-year-old housekeeper from North Carolina, returned to Brazil after overstaying her visa. “I got really scared,” she said. “I thought, I haven’t done anything wrong in my life, and suddenly I could be imprisoned.”

Advocates report more families preparing to leave on their own terms. Patrick Garcia of Embrace Carolinas said: “Something that was rare has become normal. My prediction is that departures will increase as Christmas and winter approach.”

Economists warn that the decline could deepen labor shortages in sectors such as agriculture, restaurants, and elder care. Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution said, “A rapid decline in immigration is going to cause economic harm,” noting that an aging US population depends on young immigrant workers.

Some immigration opponents disagree. Jeremy Beck of NumbersUSA said the drop is “a good thing for workers who will benefit from a tighter labor market.”

Whether this trend lasts depends on policy decisions and legal challenges. But with Congress allocating more funds for enforcement and detention, analysts say restrictive measures could remain in place throughout Trump’s term.