Canada may need 15 million workers over the next decade, says Indian envoy

Canada could require around 15 million additional workers over the next decade to meet labour demand generated by planned investments, India's High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh K. Patnaik, has said.

Speaking in an interview, Patnaik linked the potential demand to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's target of catalysing $1 trillion in investments over the next five to 10 years. "Canada is a country of 42,000,000 people. Your workforce is reducing every year, and the calculation is that about 186,000 to 200,000 jobs are going down every year, not jobs, people in the workforce. You have about 21 million in the workforce, and they're retiring at the rate of about 25 to 26,000 people a week, a month, and so it's about 186,000 in a year," Patnaik said.

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According to Patnaik, every $1 billion in capital investment typically requires between 10,000 and 15,000 workers. Applying this estimate to the proposed investment target, he projected a potential requirement of up to 15 million workers.

However, the projection is based on the stated investment-to-employment ratio and does not establish how many additional workers Canada will ultimately need.

Canada's ageing workforce

Patnaik also highlighted Canada's demographic challenges, noting that the country has a population of around 42 million and faces a shrinking share of working-age people. He estimated that retirements are reducing Canada's workforce by between 186,000 and 200,000 people annually.

Patnaik explained, “The normal calculations across the world are that a billion dollars of investment creates about 10,000 to 15,000 jobs. 10,000 if it's high tech, 15 to 18,000 if it is low tech, so you need more people, and so the average is between 10 and 15,000. Prime Minister Carney is looking at an investment of $1 trillion into the economy over the next 10 years. So 1 trillion is 1000 billion. 1 billion creates 10,000 to 15,000 jobs, direct and indirect. Which means that if you have to get one trillion, you need to create 15,000,000 jobs in this country. In the next 10 years, that will be created, so you'll need 15,000,000 people; you have a 21 million workforce, reducing every year by 186,000. So I don't have to do the math for you.”

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A declining working-age population could increase pressure on employers to fill vacancies as investment projects progress. Actual labour demand will depend on the nature of investments, the jobs they generate and the availability of workers within Canada.

What this means for Indian workers

Canada has been a major destination for Indian students and professionals seeking overseas education and employment. If investment plans generate substantial demand for workers, opportunities could emerge for foreign candidates in sectors facing labour shortages. However, Patnaik's estimate is not an announcement of new work visas, recruitment programmes or changes to immigration rules. Indian professionals considering a move should check the eligibility requirements for relevant work permits and job categories.

The projection comes as Canada moves towards tighter immigration targets and lower study permit numbers. This creates a contrast between the potential demand for workers linked to investment plans and the government's efforts to manage the number of newcomers.