Dubai’s residential prices fell 4-7% during the Feb-April 2026

Dubai residential prices fell 4-7% during the Feb-April 2026 period due to Iran conflict as geopolitical tensions affected buyer sentiment, according to Anarock data.

Dubai recorded AED 225.7 billion worth of residential transactions in the first half of 2026, representing 15% growth against 2024 but dropping 16% against 2025.

"The report highlights that while geopolitical tensions briefly affected buyer sentiment during March and April 2026, the correction was largely sentiment-driven - not structural. Residential prices softened by just 4-7% in the February to April period, significantly outperforming the DFM Real Estate stock index, which crashed 34% at its peak - the widest sentiment-to-asset gap of any Dubai crisis on record,” said Aayush Puri, CEO - Residential, Middle East & CEO - ANAROCK Channel Partners (India).


Anarock data indicates overall residential prices in Dubai in H1 2026 stand at approximately AED 1,900/sq.ft. - in same period of 2025, it was AED 1,800/sq.ft., amounting to a 6% yearly gain.

"The recovery has been underpinned by robust market fundamentals," said Puri.

Dubai recorded AED 225.7 billion worth of residential transactions in the first half of 2026, representing 15% growth against 2024 but dropping 16% against 2025. Moreover, off-plan transactions consistently accounted for nearly 70–77% of market activity throughout the period, highlighting sustained buyer confidence despite short-term uncertainty.

"The conflict early in 2026 tested Dubai's residential market at a time when regional uncertainty was at its peak. In the months that followed, buyer activity returned steadily, prices remained resilient, and demand continued to be supported by strong structural fundamentals rather than speculative momentum,” Puri said.

The report highlights that while transaction enquiries slowed immediately following the geopolitical escalation, demand recovered steadily once ceasefire efforts progressed. Weekly residential sales touched AED 10 billion during the recovery phase, indicating that investors viewed the slowdown as temporary rather than a change in long-term market fundamentals.

Beyond the immediate recovery, Dubai continues to benefit from its structural drivers. The city welcomed approximately 470 new residents every day during 2025, its population crossed 4.03 million, and residential sales reached a record AED 547 billion across 206,166 transactions in 2025, reflecting continued global investor interest. The expansion of Golden Visa eligibility for mortgaged properties is expected to further broaden the pool of eligible buyers.

According to Anarock, the market is now entering a more selective phase, where investment performance will increasingly depend on micro-market fundamentals rather than broad-based price appreciation.

Premium locations such as Palm Jumeirah and Downtown Dubai are expected to continue benefiting from strong global wealth inflows, while emerging infrastructure-led corridors such as Dubai South are positioned for sustained long-term growth. Conversely, supply-heavy mid-market locations are likely to witness more measured appreciation.

Buyers that actively bought residential property in Dubai in 2025 hailed from 150 countries - with India at the top (22%), followed by UK 17%, China 14%. Over 1,29,600 new investors entered Dubai market in 2025, up 23% y-o-y; around 80% of transactions are cash funded, insulating the market from interest rate shocks. 38% buyers bought homes in Dubai for end-use, 28% buy-to-let income, 21% Golden Visa residency, while 13% capital preservation.

During Global Financial Crisis (2008 to 2010), residential prices fell 40% and took 3.5 years to recover - the slowest rebound in Dubai's history.

While during Oil price collapse (2015 to 2016), it reported only a 2% correction, since oil is under 1% of Dubai's GDP. COVID-19 (2020) saw 6% correction which recovered in 13 months, the fastest full-cycle turnaround at the time.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022) period was no decline at all, Dubai was a net beneficiary as Russian capital re-rated Palm Jumeirah pricing.

The file projects 4-7% residential price growth during 2026, supported by continued population growth, expanding international buyer participation and favourable government policies.