World Test Championship Points Table: What are India's chances to qualify for the WTC final?

India's chances of qualifying for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final have taken a hit as Australia is just four wickets away from victory in the fourth Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG).

After falling behind in the Boxing Day Test by a considerable margin within the first two days, a victory seems improbable. If India fails to win in Melbourne, their path to the WTC final at Lord’s will become even more challenging ahead of the New Year’s Test in Sydney, which begins on January 3, 2025.

The best the Indian team can fetch from the Boxing Day Test is a draw. However, the last wicket of Nitish Kumar Reddy has made this an uphill task after the embarrassing collapse of the top order, except for Jaiswal.


While the Indian team has avoided the follow-on, thanks to young gun Nitish Kumar Reddy, after Australia scored a mammoth total of 474 runs in the first innings of the fourth Test.

India's WTC Standing

Following a draw in the previous Test in Brisbane, India’s points percentage (PCT) dropped from 57.29 to 55.88. They remain in third place in the WTC standings, behind South Africa (63.33) and Australia (58.89). South Africa is in a strong position to secure a spot in the final if they defeat Pakistan in the ongoing Centurion Test. Australia, meanwhile, has two matches left in their WTC campaign, both against Sri Lanka.

India and Australia are contesting a total of 228 WTC points across their respective remaining fixtures. Currently, only eight points (equivalent to two draws) separate the two sides in the standings, making their remaining matches crucial for their qualification chances.

Possible scenarios for India to qualify for WTC

If India Lose the Melbourne Test but Win in Sydney (2-2 series result):

• India will finish the WTC cycle with 126 points and a PCT of 55.26.
• Australia can still overtake India by securing at least two draws or one win in their Sri Lanka series.

If India Lose in Melbourne and Draw in Sydney (1-2 series result):

• India will end with 118 points and a PCT of 51.76.
• Australia would surpass India’s PCT even before their series against Sri Lanka ends.

If India Draw Both Melbourne and Sydney Tests (1-1 series result):

• India will finish with 122 points and a PCT of 53.50.
• Australia would need to secure at least one win in Sri Lanka to surpass India’s PCT and qualify for the final.

If India Draw in Melbourne and Win in Sydney (2-1 series result):

• India will finish with 130 points and a PCT of 57.01.
• Australia would then need to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 to qualify for the final, making their task significantly tougher.

Current WTC Points Table (as of December 27, 2024):

Pos.	Team	Matches	Points	Played	PCT

1

South Africa

10

6-3-1

120

63.33

2

Australia

15

9-4-2

180

60.71

3

India

17

9-6-2

204

57.29

4

New Zealand

14

7-7-0

168

48.21

5

Sri Lanka

11

5-6-0

132

45.45

6

England

22

11-10-1

264

43.18

7

Pakistan

10

4-6-0

120

33.33

8

Bangladesh (E)

12

4-8-0

144

31.25

9

West Indies (E)

11

2-7-2

132

24.24

Australia’s remaining fixtures

Australia’s two matches against Sri Lanka could be decisive in determining their WTC final qualification. With a current PCT of 58.89, they have a slight edge over India but must secure favorable results to maintain their position.