What are India's chances to qualify for WTC final after their crushing home defeat against NZ?

New Zealand achieved a landmark victory on Saturday by winning their first-ever Test series in India, which has significantly shaken up the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) standings.

The Kiwis won the second Test match by 113 runs in Pune, courtesy of spinner Mitchell Santner, who took a total of 13 wickets.

India, given a target of 359 runs to chase, was bowled out for 245 on the third day. This win gives New Zealand a 2-0 lead in the three-match series, making the final result beyond India’s reach.

India's position on WTC table

India's fourth loss in the current WTC cycle dropped their lead over Australia to a slim 0.32 percentage points. India now has 62.82 percentage points, closely followed by Australia with 62.50. These consecutive home defeats have put India's chances for a third straight WTC final in a precarious position.

WTC standings now a rope walk for India

The WTC standings are now highly competitive, with numerous teams battling for the top two spots to secure a place in the 2025 WTC final. The forthcoming Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia is now crucial for India; winning the series could be vital to their chances of reaching the final.

New Zealand's victory moved them to fourth place in the standings with 50.00 percentage points, pushing South Africa to fifth with 47.62. Sri Lanka remains in third place with 55.56 points.

Pakistan also secured a notable win, defeating England by nine wickets in Rawalpindi to win the series 2-1. This victory moved Pakistan to seventh place with 33.33 points, just behind England who have 40.79 points.

What are the chances for India to qualify for WTC final?

For India, avoiding another defeat in the remaining six matches is critical to their qualification chances. India must win at least five of these matches and can afford only one draw to finish with 71.05 percentage points. Achieving six outright wins would boost India to 74.56 percentage points, which requires a 5-0 victory in their series against Australia.

India will face New Zealand in the final Test of the series in Mumbai starting November 1. This is a must-win situation to keep their WTC final hopes alive.