Gukesh is no accident: World champion faces Karpov’s jibe, Carlsen’s shadow and Sindarov’s challenge in Geneva

Anatoly Karpov said it out loud this year: Gukesh became world champion “by accident”, and Magnus Carlsen is still the real champion.

As Gukesh prepares for his first title defence, against Javokhir Sindarov, starts in Geneva on November 24, the charge has picked up a second count: he is an accidental champion and an underdog.

One of those is true. It is also the one that helps him.

What makes a champion accidental?

The case goes like this. Carlsen gave up the title in 2022. Ding Liren beat Ian Nepomniachtchi for the empty throne. An out-of-form Ding met Gukesh in Singapore in 2024 and blundered in the final game. Carlsen beats Gukesh more often than he loses to him. Therefore, had Carlsen defended his title, Gukesh would never have become champion.

Every step is accurate. The conclusion is moot. Gukesh won the Candidates, sat across from the incumbent and won 7.5-6.5. The rules offer no other route to the title. Is Carlsen the stronger player? Yes, and Gukesh said as much at his own victory press conference. But if my aunt had a moustache, she would be my uncle. She doesn’t.

Hypotheticals don’t sign scoresheets. And for the record, Gukesh beat Carlsen in classical chess at Norway Chess in June 2025, from a position he should have lost.

Have we seen this film before?

The underdog tag holds up on paper. Sindarov won the 2025 World Cup and the 2026 Candidates without losing a game. On the September rating list, he was 75 points clear of Gukesh, who has endured a rough year by any champion’s standard.

Indians know this script well. We build our heroes up and then watch them walk back for nought. Sachin Tendulkar collected 34 ducks in international cricket. Virat Kohli has 40. And yet, in 2019, David Warner’s middle daughter, Indi Rae, took guard in the family backyard and announced, “I’m Virat Kohli.” Her father was right there.

Form is temporary. Class is permanent.

Why is the champion praising his challenger?

Watch Gukesh’s long, leisurely dinner conversation with Viswanathan Anand and Sagar Shah. He has nothing but praise for Sindarov. He also mentions, almost in passing, that he has been through a grind like this once before.

Anand, sitting beside him, has been through it as a five-time world champion.

That is jiu-jitsu. In that art, you borrow half your strength from your opponent. By talking Sindarov up, Gukesh hands him the weight of being favourite to carry for three weeks. Sindarov has never played a world championship match. Fourteen classical games against the same opponent, with a country watching every move, is a different animal from a tournament, where a bad day gets buried by the next round.

Gukesh rates Sindarov’s chess highly. What he is counting on is the one thing a rating list cannot measure: nerve that has already been tested and tamed at this level. Soft-spoken and mature beyond his 20 years, Gukesh is giving away the favourite’s tag because he knows exactly how heavy it is.

So, what are the odds?

I like a punt as much as the man on the next stool at a sports bar. I also root for Gukesh, which makes me the worst person to set the line. Strip away the national pride and I still land on even money. Sindarov has the form and the rating. Gukesh has the match experience and the champion’s chair.

What decides it is an old line attributed to the Polish grandmaster Akiba Rubinstein. Asked who his opponent was that evening, he replied: “Tonight, I am playing against the Black pieces.”

The board, the clock, the position. Nothing else. Karpov’s verdict, Carlsen’s shadow, the rating gap and a billion-odd expectations can all wait outside the Fondation Martin Bodmer in Geneva. If Gukesh plays only the pieces, the word “accidental” retires in Geneva. If he doesn’t, it will outlive his reign.