IPL 2024 playoff chances in percentages: How SRH, CSK, RCB, DC and LSG are placed

Delhi Capitals (DC) on Tuesday secured a 19-run victory over Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) in the Indian Premier League (IPL). This win propelled DC to the fifth position on the points table, concluding their season with seven wins, seven losses, and a total of 14 points. Conversely, LSG fell to seventh place, ending their campaign with six wins, seven losses, and 12 points. Both teams still have slim playoff hopes, which hinge on the outcomes of remaining matches involving other franchises. In this crucial match, DC amassed 208 for four, thanks to opener Abhishek Porel's 33-ball 58 and a late surge from Tristan Stubbs, who remained unbeaten on 57 off just 25 deliveries. In reply, LSG managed 189 for nine despite fighting half-centuries from Nicholas Pooran (61 off 27) and Arshad Khan (58 not out off 33). KKR and Rajasthan Royals have already qualified for the playoffs.

According to IPL 2024's official broadcasters Star Sports here are chances of teams qualifying for the playoffs: SunRisers Hyderabad (87.3%), Chennai Super Kings 72.7%,, Royal Challengers Bengaluru (39.3%), DC (0.7%) and LSG (0.2%).

IPL 2024 Playoff Chances

Chennai Super Kings (CSK): CSK is currently positioned third on the points table, with 14 points from 13 matches and a net run rate of 0.528. Their playoff prospects are straightforward: a win against Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB) on Saturday will secure their spot in the playoffs. If CSK loses but by a margin smaller than 18 runs (assuming they are chasing 200), their net run rate will still surpass RCB’s. A heavier defeat, however, would necessitate that Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) lose both their remaining matches, allowing CSK to qualify alongside RCB based on net run rate.

Royal Challengers Bangalore (RCB): Currently sixth on the points table, RCB has 12 points from 13 matches and a net run rate of 0.387. RCB's playoff chances are contingent on SRH not earning more than one point from their remaining games. RCB needs to surpass CSK in the standings, which requires a victory over them by at least 18 runs if they score 200. If they chase 200, they must achieve the target in about 18.1 overs. If RCB wins by a smaller margin, they can only qualify if SRH loses both their matches, leaving them tied on points but ahead on net run rate. A loss or a washout against CSK will eliminate RCB from playoff contention.

Delhi Capitals (DC): DC concluded their season with 14 points, but their net run rate of -0.377 severely hampers their playoff hopes. For DC to sneak into the top four, they need CSK to defeat RCB, leaving RCB at 12 points, and SRH to lose their last two matches by substantial margins to drop their net run rate below DC’s. Given the current net run rate disparities, DC’s chances of making the playoffs are almost nonexistent.

Lucknow Super Giants (LSG): LSG, now sitting at 12 points, can still reach 14 points. However, even a significant victory in their final match against Mumbai Indians (MI) would only marginally improve their net run rate. Thus, like DC, LSG’s hopes are nearly extinguished, relying on a series of highly improbable results to advance.

Sunrisers Hyderabad: Gujarat Titans and and Punjab Kings. SRH need just one more point to secure a playoff spot. If they lose both remaining matches, their qualification will depend on CSK defeating RCB, provided SRH maintains a better net run rate than DC. Should SRH lose both games and RCB triumph over CSK, SRH's qualification would then hinge on CSK's net run rate falling below theirs.