Race to the Moon: Power, politics and the new space order

High above the reach of trade wars and tariffs, a quieter but intensifying rivalry is unfolding in the vacuum of space between the United States and China. While NASA’s Artemis programme advances the US’s return to the Moon, China’s ambition to land its astronauts there by 2030 is taking on sharper geopolitical significance, adding pressure on Beijing to stay on schedule or move faster.

Both are also competing to draw the norms of future lunar governance. The US-led Artemis Accords on governance of the civil exploration and use of outer space stand alongside the China- and Russia-backed International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), each laying the groundwork for a long-term human presence on the Moon.

Read more: 'Howl at the Moon': NASA's bid to boost space enthusiasm

What the US has achieved

NASA’s Artemis II crew of four astronauts has returned to Earth, splashing down in the Pacific Ocean on April 10 and marking humanity’s first crewed mission around the Moon in more than 50 years.

The mission covered an incredible 1.1 million kilometres from launch to return, wrapping up the 10-day flight and setting records for the farthest distance flown by humans in space.

But in many ways, this was just the warm-up. The real challenge for NASA begins now: landing humans on the Moon within the next two years.

For this, SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is developing a lunar version of its Starship rocket, while Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin is working on a lander called Blue Moon Mark 2.

The problem? Both projects are running behind schedule, according to media reports.

A March 10 report from NASA’s Office of Inspector General paints a tough picture. SpaceX’s lunar Starship is at least two years late compared to its original timeline, with further delays expected. Blue Origin’s lander is also behind by at least eight months.

Read more: Artemis II's success gives confidence to India for Gaganyaan mission, says astrophysicist

Still, NASA isn’t slowing down its bigger vision. The aim is to return to the Moon — building a sustained human presence that could eventually pave the way to Mars.

Where China stands

China’s space programme, meanwhile, has developed in tandem with the nation’s rapid economic and military growth over the last two decades. It is now targeting a crewed Moon landing by around 2030.

If the US's Artemis timeline slips, China could potentially get there first. Its strategy is more streamlined than the US plan — using two rockets, separate crew and lander modules, and avoiding complex in-orbit refuelling.

During the Apollo era, the Soviet Union was the US’s main rival, but its lunar programme ultimately failed. Now, China has emerged as the new challenger. Beijing, however, faces a major test: proving an entirely new lunar mission system in a few years.

According to China’s human spaceflight agency, the 2030 mission will rely on two Long March-10 rockets. One would carry astronauts in the Mengzhou spacecraft, while the other would launch the lunar lander. The two would meet and dock in lunar orbit, after which two astronauts would descend to the surface, carry out their work, and then return to orbit to rejoin the spacecraft for the journey back to Earth.

In recent years, China’s robotic lunar missions have helped it gain valuable experience in navigation, docking, and communications around the Moon. But crewed missions bring far higher safety demands, and several key systems, including the rocket and spacecraft, are still being fully tested.

What the new space race is about

Artemis II is being presented as a global effort under NASA’s Artemis programme, but two of the world’s biggest space powers, China and Russia, are not part of it. Russia, despite decades of cooperation with the US and other partners on the International Space Station (ISS), has stayed out of the Artemis framework. That absence has added to the growing view that space is entering a new phase of competition rather than collaboration.

The idea of a ‘space race’ itself is not new. It began with the Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik 1 in 1957.

Today’s competition looks different, but the underlying rivalry remains. Increasingly, the focus is shifting toward the Moon’s resources, with countries eyeing potential access to materials that could support future space missions and beyond.

One of the most discussed possibilities is Helium-3, a rare isotope found on the Moon in greater quantities than on Earth, reported Reuters. It is often described as a potential fuel for future nuclear fusion, producing energy with minimal radioactive waste. While still theoretical in many respects, it has attracted interest not just from the US, China and Russia, but also from countries like India and Japan.

However, the law regarding moon mining is unclear and full of gaps. The United Nations 1967 Outer Space Treaty says that no nation can claim sovereignty over the Moon — or other celestial bodies — and that the exploration of space should be carried out for the benefit of all countries. The 1979 Moon Agreement states that no part of the Moon "shall become property of any State, international intergovernmental or non-governmental organization, national organization or non-governmental entity or of any natural person." It has not been ratified by any major space power. The US in 2020 announced the Artemis Accords, named after NASA's Artemis Moon programme, to seek to build on existing international space law by establishing "safety zones" on the moon. Russia and China have not joined the accords.

But the ongoing rivalry isn’t just about mining resources anytime soon. For now, it’s more about positioning, gaining early access, building infrastructure, and shaping the rules of how future lunar activity will be governed.

Where does India stand?

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has set an ambitious target of landing astronauts on the Moon by 2040. The country’s first human spaceflight mission, Gaganyaan, is on track for launch in 2027.

But getting to the Moon will require a major leap in capability, from rockets and launch systems to wider space infrastructure, and India has already begun laying the groundwork, including plans for its own space station.

As ISRO Chairman V. Narayanan once put it, the journey has been dramatic: “From launching 35 kg initially to now envisioning 80,000 kg, that is the scale of transformation we are aiming for.”

India’s lunar ambitions are already backed by the Chandrayaan programme, which has delivered a series of milestones in lunar exploration. Chandrayaan-3 made history on August 23, 2023, by achieving a soft landing near the Moon’s South Pole, making India the first country to do so.

On the policy front, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pushed to accelerate India’s space push and close the gap with global players like China. At the same time, India is increasingly looking to private players to power its space economy, with hopes of achieving an 8%–10% share of the global commercial space market in the next decade, up from less than 2% today, according to a Bloomberg report.

As Washington and Beijing compete across trade, technology and military power, the Moon has quietly turned into the newest arena of geopolitical rivalry — part science, part strategy, and fully a race of ambition.