2023 warmest in 174 years; El Nino to prevail till June 2024: IMD

The year 2023 will be the warmest year in 174 years of observational record, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, India Meteorological Department (IMD) adding that the El Nino conditions are expected to prevail through April-June 2024.

“The majority of models indicate EL Nino will persist through April-June 2024 and then transition to ENSO-neutral,” the national weather forecaster predicted, adding that Bureau of Meteorology model also indicate weakening of positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions.

El Nino is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific and is known to have caused less rainfall in India. A positive IOD leads to an increased rainfall activity in the Indian sub-continent.


December Forecast
Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during December 2023 is most likely to be above normal, more than 121% of the Long Period Average (LPA), the weather office said, adding that above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the northwest, adjoining areas of central and east India and some areas of extreme south peninsular India.

However, many parts of the northeast India, north peninsular India and adjoining areas of central India are likely to witness below-normal rainfall.

The South Peninsular India consisting of five meteorological subdivisions - Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala & Mahe and South Interior Karnataka - is most likely to get normal rainfall, ranging between 69-131% of LPA.

During December 2023, monthly minimum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over most parts of the country and monthly maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except some areas of central India and north India where normal maximum temperatures are likely.