Winning Karnataka key to BJP’s quest for Congress-mukt Bharat; will Yeddyurappa, be a part?

At a press conference on Thursday afternoon at his official residence, Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is at his expansive best — taking subtle and not-so-subtle digs at the BJP and its state unit president BS Yeddyurappa, re-emphasising his Congress government’s commitment to welfare programmes and quoting legendary Kannada poet Kuvempu to underline the peaceful, cosmopolitan nature of the state. “Karnataka is not Uttar Pradesh, it is the land of (12th century social reformer) Basavanna, of Sufi saints...,” Siddaramaiah told the room full of journalists and party men.

He could afford to be grandiloquent — bucking the national trend, the Congress won the April 9 assembly by-elections in Gundlupet and Nanjangud in the state by handsome margins, a face saver for the party and a blow to the state BJP president who had made it an issue of personal prestige. To a query by ET Magazine, the chief minister even confirmed for the first time that he would be contesting the assembly elections, though he declined to say if he would be the party’s chief ministerial candidate, leaving that decision to the party “high command”, as is the Congress’ wont (See interview “Karnataka is not UP”).

With a year to go before the crucial Karnataka assembly elections, the twin victory could not have been timed better for the Congress. At the fag end of its term, the Siddaramaiah-led government has been battling various issues, from the perception of a lacklustre regime to allegations of being casteist. The win, though largely driven by local factors, comes as a morale booster for the party and its workers, who are on the back foot in the rest of the country. A confident Siddaramaiah added that a Congress victory in Karnataka in 2018 would mark the revival of the party at the national level. The victory trail, he said, would begin from the state.

If he is upset by the results of the by-election, Yeddyurappa does not reveal it at an interview a day later at the BJP’s multi-storey headquarters in Malleshwaram that he had got constructed during his term as chief minister. The losses, he says, will not “make an iota of difference” to the party’s strategy to win at least 150 seats in the assembly elections, a plan he has titled Mission 150. “We will go to the elections on (Prime Minister) Narendra Modi’s development schemes, the failure of the Siddaramaiah government and the many successful programmes we implemented during our last term in office,” he says. He is equally confident that he would continue to be the party’s candidate for the post of chief minister. More Congress leaders are expected to follow in the footsteps of former chief minister and Union minister SM Krishna and switch sides to the BJP in the days to come, he adds (See interview “Modi has not Discriminated...”).



High-stakes Game
For both the BJP and the Congress, the Karnataka assembly elections will be a humdinger. Political analyst and Jain University pro vice-chancellor Sandeep Shastri says it will be a critical test for both the national parties, with former prime minister HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (S) coming in a distant third or fourth in certain pockets. “If you go by the rotation logic in place in Karnataka since 1989, the BJP may hope that they can win. It’s critical for the BJP to win because it would be their gateway to the South. It’s equally important for the Congress because this is the only major state they would be in power, otherwise the BJP’s dream of a Congress-mukt Bharat would become a reality,” says.

For the Congress, much will depend on whether the chief minister can expand his famed Ahinda formula, the Kannada acronym for minorities, backward classes and Dalits.

Events at the national level, such as the action against cow slaughter, could contribute to the minority vote going to the Congress, but Shastri warns that this should not result in a majority consolidation, if the party wants to do well. “Historically, a ruling party has never done well in an election unless they have the support of a dominant caste. It is important that they cultivate the dominant caste vote,” says Shastri. Candidate selection would play a crucial role.

Political analyst S Mahadeva Prakash says there are many sections within the Ahinda coalition that are not happy with the Congress government, which does not bode well for the party. “With Siddaramaiah humiliating Mallikarjun Kharge and playing a role in defeating Srinivasa Prasad in the recent by-polls, the Dalits are not happy with him. Even among the SCs, a large chunk of the Madigas (the Edagai or Left Hand faction) may go with the BJP,” says Prakash. Additionally, first-time, newgeneration voters, which he estimates will be around 10 lakh in 2018, might prefer to cast their vote in favour of Narendra Modi rather than Siddaramaiah.


In pic: SM Krishna with Yeddyurappa

Internal Squabbles
While the BJP can bank on anti-incumbency, Modi’s charisma and the support of the powerful Lingayat community to which Yeddyurappa belongs, the local unit is struggling with factional divides. “The BJP has two three groups, one led by the original BJP people, the other being the former breakaway faction led by Yeddyurappa, and thirdly, the faction led by (Ballari MP) Sriramulu. If the party does not resolve the infighting among the groups, they must not expect a big share of the votes in 2018,” says Prakash.

Shastri says the losses, in fact, present a golden opportunity for the central unit of the BJP, led by Amit Shah, to emulate the Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand models, where the election is micromanaged by Delhi and a CM candidate is not declared in advance. “Note that nobody in the central leadership has announced Yeddyurappa as the candidate. Moreover, he will be 75 next year — would the BJP want to be seen violating one of its own rules about the age limit, considering it was used to keep people out, people like (former Uttarakhand CM) BC Khanduri?” With Amit Shah expected to visit Karnataka soon after the BJP’s national executive meet in Odisha, some important calls may be taken. Come April next year, all eyes will be on Karnataka as its voters decide the fate of both national parties.