Will Modi factor trump Kejriwal’s appeal in Delhi?

NEW DELHI: After last December's shock results, the buzz in the Lok Sabha election in Delhi is about whether a " Modi wave" can trump the crusading zeal of AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal even as a strong anti-incumbency sentiment weighs Congress down.

Though Delhi has seen a "split" in votes before, the occasional actors have been parties like Bahujan Samaj Party or individual heavyweights who made an impact but faded thereafter. Delhi has traditionally been Congress versus BJP.

That has changed with AAP making the contest genuinely three-cornered while the rise of the Modi factor gives the Lok Sabha polls a different shade than the assembly elections which catapulted Kejriwal onto the national stage.

In the NCR, AAP seems much less of a factor in Ghaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Faridabad and Gurgaon where the contests seem BJP versus Congress and regional parties like INLD.

Some notables in the contest in Delhi and its surrounds are telecom minister Kapil Sibal, Congress's Ajay Maken and Sandeep Dikshit, AAP's Yogendra Yadav, Ashutosh and Shazia Ilmi and BJP's Harsh Vardhan, Ramesh Bidhuri and new faces like Meenakshi Lekhi and Udit Raj.

Delhi's poll scene, however, does not appear straightforward. Though Congress has dwindled, it remains a poll factor with Sonia and Rahul Gandhi addressing well attended rallies. Its presence ensures a three-way fight.

AAP's ambitious foray of contesting over 400 Lok Sabha seats seems to have stretched its resources while a controversial 49-day stint in office disenchanted a section of its voters. Still, the party is banking on the goodwill it enjoys in slums and jhuggis and hopes to corner a big slice of the Muslim vote.

But there is a degree of confusion in the Muslim vote as it is pulled in different directions by Congress and AAP and though the community is keen to back the best option to stall a Modi government, the choice is not easily made.

Though BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi had campaigned in the Delhi assembly polls, he is a more dominant presence in the Lok Sabha elections with the party virtually making him the candidate on all seven seats.

BJP's "vote for a PM, not an MP" message is unprecedented for its directness and the extent to which the party is making this election a referendum on Modi's leadership. BJP leaders calculate that while there is a dip in AAP support, the vote isn't returning to Congress. Opinion polls have bolstered the party's confidence.