Why Karnataka polls look like a close contest

By Neerja Chowdhury

From the heart of London, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached out to the heart of Karnataka. He garlanded the statue of Karnataka’s 12th century social reformer Basavanna, praising him for his democratic values. Basavanna is followed by the powerful and pro-BJP Lingayat community, which has emerged as a key factor in the 2018 battle for Karnataka.

The May 15 poll outcome is expected to set the tone for the 2019 general election, though Karnataka has often bucked the national trend. Even in 2009 when the country was rejecting the LK Advani-led BJP, Karnataka gave BJP 19 Lok Sabha seats, and two less when Modi wave swept the country in 2014. The state voted differently from the country in 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2004.


Now that the countdown has begun for 2019, a victory or defeat in Karnataka is bound to influence the battle of perceptions. BJP has viewed Karnataka as a “gateway to the South” and the K prize could help the party acquire a pan-India profile, undoing some of the damage from its Gorakhpur and Phulpur defeats.

The stakes are however higher for Congress. A Congress win will herald the revival of the party and strengthen its bargaining position vis-à-vis other outfits in 2019. The outcome may also determine whether Congress becomes more of a federated party, with state satraps having a greater say in decisionmaking, as they used to till the 1960s. But losing the state will reduce Congress to a virtual cipher, in power only in Punjab and Mizoram.

If JD(S), a smaller though important player, becomes the kingmaker – some say HD Kumaraswamy may insist on CMship if his party manages upwards of 50 seats in a hung assembly – it could give a fillip to regional forces elsewhere, no matter who they align with in 2019.

Travelling 1,300 km by road in different parts of the state to get a sense of what ordinary people – not politicians – felt, threw up some surprises. One, Siddaramaiah has emerged as something of a wall, beating back the anti-incumbency which should have come his way after five years. His SC-backward-minority “Ahinda” alliance remains largely intact – though there is a restiveness in the numerically larger “Madiga” Dalit community. If he manages to breach BJP’s Lingayat fortress, he could be home and dry.

He has countered BJP’s Hindutva politics with his own caste-welfare-identity brand that also promotes a Kannada flag and anthem. His welfare schemes like rice at Re 1 a kg, free milk, eggs, laptops and bus passes for students, Indira canteens selling clean and edible meals at Rs 10 – helped him graduate to being a “leader of the poor”.

The second surprise was the catch up BJP is having to do, for 2018 should have clearly been a BJP show. But the party’s CM candidate BS Yeddyurappa has not clicked this time as he did in 2008. Nor is the contest being viewed as a Siddaramaiah versus Yeddyurappa battle. Many are waiting to see the impact Modi will have once he starts to campaign. Will he do what he managed in Gujarat in the penultimate round, swinging the election in BJP’s favour? But then Gujarat was his home state, with many swayed by the sentiment, “Inki naak to nahin katne de sakte” (He cannot be humiliated).

While Modi is an effective communicator and goodwill for him continues in Karnataka, translated speeches are not quite the same as they capture neither emotion nor nuances. Local BJP leaders are also wary of the “UP model” being transplanted in Karnataka, which has boasted of mass leaders in every party – Nijalingappa, Devraj, RK Hegde, SR Bommai, Veerappa Moily, CK Jaffer Sharief, HD Deve Gowda, Kumaraswamy, Yeddyurappa, Ananth Kumar (to name only some).

The third surprise was to find JD(S) doing better than expected in its stronghold of the old Mysuru area, where the contest is between Congress and JD(S). Not one Vokkaliga this writer spoke to was looking at anyone other than JD(S). There were also signs of a ground level collaboration between JD(S) and BJP in this area. That is why Chamundeshwari, from where the CM is contesting, has become a tough fight.

Karnataka has signalled another “national” takeaway – that the “Mandal” story may be far from over. Recently politically powerful castes such as Jats, Patidars and Marathas have demanded job reservations, and state governments are wilting under their pressure. And now comes the Karnataka variant of the reservation story – giving the influential Lingayats minority status to enable them to access jobs and education. It is an attractive proposition for young Lingayats, though the Centre has to approve the decision.

If Siddaramaiah does not get a majority, or close enough to it to enable him to form a government with the help of the Maharashtra Ekikaran Samithi and independents, the game will shift to BJP and JD(S), who may be able to form a coalition government – a plan B that Amit Shah appears to have put in place.

Some Congress leaders harbour the hope that in the event of a hung assembly, and given the antipathy that HD Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy have towards Siddaramaiah, the JD(S) may agree to support a Congress leader other than him as CM.

As of now, Karnataka looks like a contest too close for comfort.

(Views expressed above are the author's own.)