What the Karnataka outcome could mean for national politics

The five big messages:

› Congress showed it can do anything to stall BJP, even offer the CM post to a party with half its numbers. This saves it from further political diminution and allows it to remain a key factor in anti-BJP politics. But it comes at a cost: regional parties will try to ensure Congress remains no more than one among equals

› Moves for a federal front will continue to run in parallel with efforts to rally non-BJP parties around Congress. The focus will first shift to the assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. How the BJP vs Cong fight pans out will impact the line-up for 2019.


› BJP’s all-or-nothing strategy in fighting elections and forming govts has worked well so far. It hit a bump in Karnataka as Cong moved surprisingly swiftly to seal a deal with JD (S). BJP will have to factor in increased opposition unity but is unlikely to give up its aggressive strategy to dominate the political landscape.

› The Cong-JDS success will see a charged opposition. BJP can be expected to be equally combative with its increased numbers in RS, making Parliament logjams more frequent and disruptive.

› It will be campaign mode from now till the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Election rhetoric and personal attacks can be expected to increase as will a scramble for allies big and small. BJP will accelerate its key welfare programmes and opposition will do its best to slow it down.