What crime stats don’t say

Does higher reporting of crimes mean crime is increasing or more reporting is happening? We grapple with this question every year when annual statistics show a hike in crimes, especially against women. But new evidence suggest the overall trend is positive

In 2016, 29 lakh FIRs were registered in India. Delhi and Kerala — among the most literate states — had the highest crime rate

Crimes against women contribute to about 10% of all crimes. After the December 2012 Delhi gang-rape, reported crimes against women shot up, but they have levelled off again and declined slightly since 2014

The biggest change after 2012 was in the reporting of molestation

This places India in the bottom third of 115 countries where data is available on rapes that have been reported
* sexual assaults reported per 1 lakh population; latest available data

But there is clear evidence of under-reporting. Comparing the most recent police reports on sexual violence with the most recent nationally representative household survey shows less than 0.1% of women who were victims of sexual violence went to the police (partly because 87% of the crimes were perpetrated by their current or former husbands or partners).

So is crimes against women on the increase or is it because of a rise in reporting? Globally, many affluent countries have higher self-reported rates of sexual violence than India.

In India, too, evidence from a recent study indicates that strategies to improve reporting are probably working. Researchers found that the opening of all-women police stations increases reported crimes against women by 22%. Until India becomes a full-reporting country, rising rates of crime against women might be indicative of better reporting.