Western UP votes may favour Maya
Vote crucial for BJP chief ministerial candidate Kalyan and Ajit Singh, who’s gone solo this time
By TNN |
NEW DELHI: With voting for the second phase of polls in Uttar Pradesh, covering 58 constituencies in the western region, concluding on Friday evening, there is expectation about the BSP surging ahead of its rivals in this region.
While Ajit Singh, waging a lone battle this time round, is fighting with his back to the wall to retain his hold in this Jat-dominated belt, the stakes are equally important for the BJP, whose chief ministerial candidate Kalyan Singh will be out to prove that his clout among the Lodhs and the Hindu-minded constituency remains intact.
With Ms Mayawati succeeding in luring a section of Brahmins, the BSP is likely to emerge as the most formidable player from this region. While the Dalits, who comprise some 19% of the electorate in the 58 constituencies that went to polls on Friday, remaining steadfast in their loyalty to the BSP, the latter is likely to surge ahead.
A Muslim consolidation, contrary to popular perception, is only likely to end up benefiting Ms Mayawati, as the other secular contenders, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, have very little at stake in this belt as they lack a core vote bank that could take it closer to the electoral threshold.
Among the districts that went to polls on Friday include Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar and Saharanpur. It is a region which has a substantial Muslim population (16.6%), but Jat (11%), Jatavs (11%), Brahmins (10%), Thakurs (7%), Baniyas (6%) and Gujjars (5.8%) also have a significant presence in the nine districts dotting the landscape.
Unfortunately for Mulayam Singh Yadav, his caste-members constitute just 3% of the total electorate—a factor which relegates him to being a fringe player in this belt.
In the 2002 assembly polls, Ajit Singh’s RLD, which had forged an alliance with the BJP, had bagged 11 of the 58 seats that went to polls in the second phase, while the saffron outfit won 10. The BSP, even while ploughing a lonely furrow, emerged victorious in 15 seats, and the Samajwadi Party romped home in another 8 seats.
Even though it was down the dumps, the Congress had put up a respectable show, emerging triumphant in 6 seats. Kalyan Singh, who fought the elections under the banner of Rashtriya Kranti Party after breaking away from the BJP, won three seats, while the independents gained three seats. Naresh Agarwal’s Loktantrik Congress, which later merged with the SP, had to rest content with a single seat.
While Ajit Singh, waging a lone battle this time round, is fighting with his back to the wall to retain his hold in this Jat-dominated belt, the stakes are equally important for the BJP, whose chief ministerial candidate Kalyan Singh will be out to prove that his clout among the Lodhs and the Hindu-minded constituency remains intact.
With Ms Mayawati succeeding in luring a section of Brahmins, the BSP is likely to emerge as the most formidable player from this region. While the Dalits, who comprise some 19% of the electorate in the 58 constituencies that went to polls on Friday, remaining steadfast in their loyalty to the BSP, the latter is likely to surge ahead.
A Muslim consolidation, contrary to popular perception, is only likely to end up benefiting Ms Mayawati, as the other secular contenders, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, have very little at stake in this belt as they lack a core vote bank that could take it closer to the electoral threshold.
Among the districts that went to polls on Friday include Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar and Saharanpur. It is a region which has a substantial Muslim population (16.6%), but Jat (11%), Jatavs (11%), Brahmins (10%), Thakurs (7%), Baniyas (6%) and Gujjars (5.8%) also have a significant presence in the nine districts dotting the landscape.
Unfortunately for Mulayam Singh Yadav, his caste-members constitute just 3% of the total electorate—a factor which relegates him to being a fringe player in this belt.
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In the 2002 assembly polls, Ajit Singh’s RLD, which had forged an alliance with the BJP, had bagged 11 of the 58 seats that went to polls in the second phase, while the saffron outfit won 10. The BSP, even while ploughing a lonely furrow, emerged victorious in 15 seats, and the Samajwadi Party romped home in another 8 seats.
Even though it was down the dumps, the Congress had put up a respectable show, emerging triumphant in 6 seats. Kalyan Singh, who fought the elections under the banner of Rashtriya Kranti Party after breaking away from the BJP, won three seats, while the independents gained three seats. Naresh Agarwal’s Loktantrik Congress, which later merged with the SP, had to rest content with a single seat.
In the absence of a pre-poll alliance with either of the major stakeholders, Ajit Singh is likely to find it increasingly difficult in repeating the 2002 performance. Despite managing to wean away Mr Munawwar Hasan, the Lok Sabha member from Muzaffarnagar, from the SP, the RLD is likely to end up as a big loser. Besides, his campaign over Harish Pradesh has few takers.
The region has traditionally been home to Jat-Jatav hostility, with the Jats, being the dominant landowning cast, viewed as the biggest exploiters. The factor is likely to play out in the ongoing electoral battle too, and is likely to affect the voting-pattern of members of the two castes.
With Yadavs comprising just 3% of the voter-base in these 58 constituencies, the SP may not hold much attraction for the Muslims. That position is likely to be usurped by BSP, at least in this phase.
For the BJP, Mr Kalyan Singh’s return to the party-fold should boost its prospects. It would also be hoping for an anti-Muslim consolidation among the voters in view of the competitive “minorityism” being pursued by the “secular” contenders such as the BSP, SP and the Congress.
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