View: To challenge BJP, it is necessary to best Modi in final lap

The steeplechase to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls has begun.

The leading contenders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress President Rahul Gandhi, are measuring one another. Others will enter the track later and negotiate the last laps of the hurdles. But the intricate method of quantifying achievement — strong regional showings are sufficient to translate into political clout — ensures that there are many contenders to the medal podium. But Modi remains the front-runner.

Although post-Berkeley, Gandhi has secured his position as the principal challenger, he currently trails on personal ratings. This matters in a presidential-style campaign. Till a few months ago, 2019 was termed a ‘settled affair’. However, the BJP’s uninspiring victory in Gujarat raises questions whether its national mandate will be renewed with the same degree of predestined comfort.


The character of the track ahead justifies a re-examination of the ‘Modi is here to rule’ premise. States voting in 2018 are either purely bipolar or will host a contest between the Big Two with a regional party as a factor. Furthermore, the BJP is incumbent in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh (the BJP winning 62 of the total Lok Sabha seats in these states in 2014), and Modi’s last-minute exertions in Gujarat illustrated the BJP’s relative ineptness at defending bastions as opposed to snatching territories.

The issues that posed as hurdles in the BJP’s way in Gujarat, and the manner in which these were negotiated, can provide a framework for analysing the party’s challenges ahead. First, the leadership deficit, due to the absence of a second-rank leadership to ‘hold Gujarat together’ after Modi shifted to Delhi, was countered by the PM personalising the campaign. The BJP doesn’t face this disadvantage in the states going to polls in 2018 because of the presence of notable satraps there.

But in most other states, the party will remain deficient during the Lok Sabha polls for the same reasons as it was in Gujarat. Ironically, this suits the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo for the opportunity to convert the battle into personal slugfests against Gandhi and other regional players.

Read My Lips: I’m Angry
Second, in most elections, incumbents are voted out by the proverbial ‘silent voter’. In Gujarat, however, the BJP was bailed out by this group that remained loyal despite visible anger. This establishes he presence of political devotees, Hindutva supporters and Modi fans, who may criticise decisions of GoI and BJP governments in states, but remain unwavering when it matters most.

Gandhi fought the Gujarat polls by staying within the BJP’s Hindutva template. Unless he has the ground reverberate with a comparable ‘Rahul-Rahul’ chant, Modi remains ahead. Third, the BJP social base has proved to be dynamic. Certain communities and groups get alienated, but are replaced by new social groups and economic classes. ‘New India’ remains just an electoral rattle; but a ‘New BJP’ is not dependent on its traditional upper-caste-trader base.

Additionally, its organisational framework has been overhauled to make it evident that winning elections is the party’s primary objective. However, disinterest to engage with socially marginal communities, mainly due to the limitations of Hindutva’s reach, has the potential of triggering social upheaval that may unsettle middle-India, the BJP’s new social base.

Fourth, Modi will not be unaware of serious economic challenges, especially on the front of generating jobs and making agriculture more remunerative to the extent of matching aspirations with expectations. Successive agitations in Gujarat were the result of the urban underemployed and unskilled labour joining forces with unmotivated farmers. This was circumvented by a polarising campaign, which remains the BJP’s most tried and tested tactic.

Demonetisation and GST have ceased to be direct poll issues. But consequences of the two steps can come back to haunt the BJP any time.

The BJP believes that setbacks in a couple of states will not jeopardise its national run. People are politically bifocal, the ‘ideal choice’ in states often differing with that at the Centre. The party’s 2019 national campaign cannot be promissory à la ‘achhe din’, because it is yet to deliver a single feel-good programme that alone can propel it to a majority.

Modi will undoubtedly highlight an assorted list of achievements, but only to go through the motions. He is keenly aware of the limited electoral potential of the ‘work done’. An overarching parochial sentiment, especially when incumbent, is more rewarding.

Consequently, the BJP will aim to shift the voters’ focus from the assessment of personal advancement since 2014 to protection and national pride — a nebulous concept whose measurement is subjective.

In this, the BJP holds advantage over the Congress and regional forces. Resurrecting the ‘Other’, who poses a threat to the ‘national idea’, can counter anti-incumbency and adversarial sub-regionalism.

Plan for the Slog Overs
To pose a serious challenge to Modi’s BJP, the Congress needs to add new social and demographic blocs to its support base. Moreover, as proved repeatedly, it is necessary to best Modi in the final lap.

Wresting a state or two while retaining Karnataka, Meghalaya and Mizoram will enhance Gandhi’s stature, enthuse the Congress cadre and enable it to maximise the perception nationwide that the ‘script has not already unfolded’. The failure of the Congress to hold its own and make a dent, though, will again make the race appear predestined.