View: Gujarat learning for anti-Modi spin doctors?

By Devendra Kumar

Until last week, there appeared to be a growing chorus of opinion that the Gujarat Assembly election will be a close call. The results are for everyone to see — BJP has secured a comfortable majority, making a gain of more than one percentage point in votes since 2012.

In each annotation, the phraseology was uncannily similar — lingering demonetisation effects, GST’s flawed implementation, anti-incumbency of 22 years of rule, holes in the ‘Gujarat model’ of development, Congress’ new social alliance, Rahul Gandhi’s proactive outreach in his post-Berkeley avatar.


So, what explains the results or, more precisely, yet another disappointing failure by the Congress? First, Congress lacked an all-defining principal narrative. It kept shifting from development (or lack of it) to a social alliance to caste-based identity politics and re-imagining of Rahul Gandhi as a Hindu. “Vikas gando chhe (Development has gone crazy),” was not a smart way to take on a party and a government known for development. Gujaratis take immense pride that the state is seen as an exemplar of economic progress. To pun on vikas going crazy, for whosoever it was intended, it was clearly misdirected and ill-conceived.

A nervous think-tank abandoned anchoring the narrative on development and swung to the other extreme, to position Gandhi as a Hindu.

This was an ugly manifestation of Congress dishonesty. Its leaders, and many media spin doctors, do not hesitate to shout from rooftops its so-called ‘secular’ credentials. Gandhi’s mischievous attempt to reinvent as a Hindu was in stark contrast to this line of thinking.

What was the party seeking to convey? Why did Gandhi suddenly realise the virtues of visiting a temple during high-octane electioneering? Why was the party spokesperson at pains to reinforce Gandhi was a janeu dhaari (one who wears the sacred thread) Brahmin? Was Congress trying to subtly say only janeu dhaariBrahmins are real Hindus? Was it not disrespecting to other Hindus? Valid questions all, that voters sought answers for. The bigger narrative, or so it was made out to be, was of social alliances. Facts, however, point otherwise. There was a clash of interests among Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani — and Congress.

For instance, in several areas, the Patels are traditionally in conflict with Thakors for political dominance. Moreover, Patels’ reservation demand puts them in direct conflict with all OBCs, including Thakors. The party also expended a disproportionate amount of political capital on trying to stitch together a negative campaign around adverse effects of demonetisation and GST.

Results have shown otherwise. BJP’ssuccess in economic hubs of Surat, Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Rajkot mirrors Congress’ inability to read people and traders’ mood. Gandhi’s “Gabbar Singh Tax” jibe against GST was a malicious coinage that annoyed voters. The theory that short-term pain in economic reforms will extract a costly political price is flawed and mistaken because people have faith in PM’s intent to usher in positive change. Congress’ so-called strength or, more precisely, BJP’s historical weakness in rural areas, the results show, was a gross overestimation — an act of spin-doctoring not based on hard data. The narrative created by linking Congress’ poll prospects to farm stress was ambitious in backdrop of Modi government’s rural focus. BJP was not routed in ruralrural constituencies, while urban voters rallied emphatically behind it.

BJP’s tribal outreach was another major factor, with results validating its and government’s relentless concentration on tribal belt of Gujarat. Scheduled Tribes such as Bhils, Vasavas and Gamits make up some 14% of Gujarat’s population, a section any political party can ill afford to ignore. Development in the true sense in tribal areas started only after BJP come to power.

Finally, many political pundits who had created a myth around the reinvention of Gandhi and resurgence of Congress, ignored that BJP has Narendra Modi, whose appeal in his home state is synonymous with Gujarati pride. It also has a master strategist president Amit Shah, who has, time and again, proven electoral management is a 24x7 operation that requires dedication, attention to detail, meticulous planning and flawless implementation. Paratrooping spin doctors, who do not have any stake in politics, cannot win elections. It requires dirtying your hands in the mud for the sake of development and progress, day in and day out.

(The author is a psephologist)