View: Akhilesh Yadav has emerged stronger than ever before, but this is unlikely to help SP

For most of last winter, the media in north India obsessed over an intra-family struggle for total control over a political party. Partly Ramayan, partly Mughal-e-Azam, the blockbuster drama climaxed with chief minister Akhilesh Yadav emerging stronger than ever before. He was much like the protagonist in the Hollywood classic, The Shawshank Redemption, who wades through underground sewers the size of five football fields and comes out clean.

Talking to potential voters while touring eastern Uttar Pradesh last week, one could see that Akhilesh is indeed UP’s politician No 1. Youngsters, cutting across castes, viewed him as sincere and forward thinking. But the SP politician’s premium brand status doesn’t seem to benefit his party’s candidates in the state assembly polls. Many might find it tough to escape anti-incumbency – for a variety of reasons.

One, the Yadav family fight forced the party to change its candidates a number of times. Such moves have created disaffection in the ranks and lowered the work-rate of cadres. But the problems of the party, contesting in tandem with Congress this time, are more fundamental.

If the 2012 polls produced the perfect storm in favour of SP, Azamgarh district was its locus where it got 9 out of 10 seats. But this time with BSP getting the support of Rashtriya Ulama Council, a conservative Muslim body that came together in the post-Batla House encounter (2008) days, and with mafia don turned politico Mukhtar Ansari’s Qaumi Ekta Dal merging with BSP, Mayawati starts off with a decent Muslim vote base, especially among poorer classes. Even most Shia voters in east UP are with her, albeit not high in numbers.

That doesn’t mean Muslims don’t favour SP anymore. Many do. But any division of Muslim votes, estimated to be around 19%, works hugely against the SP-Congress combine. Muslims and Yadavs are the core social bloc of SP – and any decrease in numbers will be injurious to Akhilesh’s chances. Having offered 99 seats to Muslims, more than any other major party, BSP has displayed harmony in its words and actions. In most east UP seats, BSP figures among the top two in the race.

Like SP, BJP too has its share of ticket distribution woes. The case is best illustrated by Shyamdev Roy Chaudhari, a seven-time winner from Varanasi South, being shockingly denied a ticket. Worse, a splinter group of rabid right group Hindu Yuva Vahini contested the polls on Shiv Sena tickets.

Every vote it gets, whatever the number, would be one ballot lost for BJP. The ‘rebel’ issue is likely to hurt BJP and SP more than BSP.
Overall, BSP’s ticket distribution has been niftier.

After the setback in 2012 UP and a washout in 2014 LS, 2017 is a last chance saloon of sorts for the BSP leader and she has preferred winnability over everything else, neatly exemplified by the Ansari tie-up. Even in distant Sonbhadra district they are talking about how smartly she bagged Vijay Singh Gond, a seven-time MLA from Duddhi, from SP.

BSP’s core voter base (a majority of 21% Dalits), however, is counterbalanced by the support that BJP seems to enjoy among most upper caste voters (about 20%). To create a winning combo of caste and community, both parties have reached out to other social groups in various ways. BJP largely adopted the ‘top down approach’ while BSP generally relied on bhaichara rallies and wooing community leaders in a bottom up method.

OBCs are estimated to be 37-38% of UP’s population with Yadavs about 8-9%. In 2014 LS, BJP and its allies had romped home with 42% votes and 73 out of 80 seats in UP primarily due to a coalescing of upper caste and non-Yadav OBC voters. It had also made inroads among non-Jatav Dalit voters, especially among the young.

In west UP, from all accounts, BJP seems to have lost a chunk of the Jat vote. But in east UP it appears BJP retains a section of non-Yadav OBC votes due to a combination of smart alliances and social engineering. Speaking to Patels (Kurmis) and Rajbhars, one gathers they are likely to vote BJP. Among other OBCs, Koeris and Noniyas are also inclined favourably towards the saffron party.

It seemed demonetisation also had a caste in UP.

Unlike Dalits and Muslims, most upper caste voters justified and praised demonetisation when spoken to. Caste is a shape-shifting, multi-lingual beast; it can speak any language – development or demonetisation – as per its needs. And that’s true for every caste.

What could be decisive in this intriguing contest is the role of dozens of small politically unattached caste groups in the state. These unorganised lower OBCs (roughly 15%) have voted or are likely to vote for a party which they feel best promotes their interests. Many among them have lost jobs, been denied wages, or been laid off due to notebandi in rural eastern UP.

Many from these caste groups had voted BJP in 2014. A large scale shift could alter the larger outcome.

To conclude, a couple of broader trends are apparent. BSP will grow at the expense of SP and will perform better than it did in 2012 UP polls. The party got 25% votes and 80 seats then. A healthy performance in east UP can make it a contender for the top slot. BJP will fare much better than it did in UP 2012 when it got a mere 15% votes and 47 seats, although its 2014 LS romp looks unlikely.