Uttarakhand polls: Will BJP benefit from those who jumped the Congress ship?

Twentieth on the list of Indian states on the basis of population (as per Census 2011), the political significance of Uttarakhand should ideally not merit much, more so as it elects just five members of Lok Sabha and three members of the Upper House. Yet, even if assembly elections in the state had been held along with a bigger clutch of states, Uttarakhand would have still attracted considerable attention.

This stems from a variety of reasons, ranging from proximity to Delhi and for being the arena of bitter political and judicial tussle between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP) and the Congress party for past several months. But before the conflict that provides the backdrop to the elections due on February 15, a bit of the Uttarakhand narrative since its formation in November 2000.

Formed as the 27th state of India after an agitation for a separate state lasting several decades, political stability eluded the state for long phases. Uttarakhand nee Uttaranchal till 2006 was drawn from 13 districts of united UP, electing 22 MLAs to the state assembly and in 1996, the last time state polls were held in united UP, the BJP had 17 of these constituencies.

By virtue of this, it formed the first government before Election Commission delimited the 22 seats into 70 and, when the first elections in the state were held in 2002, the Congress secured a comfortable victory, bagging 36 seats in contrast to BJP’s 19. The difference in vote share of the two parties was barely 1.5 points, due to an impressive performance of the Bahujan Samaj Party ( BSP) which won seven seats with almost 11% of the votes. Other local parties have fragmented the polity making it a tight contest in 2007 and 2012.

Wheels of Fortunes
The wide gap between the two principal rivals, political astuteness and administrative abilities of ND Tiwari — one of the three former chief ministers of united UP from the hill areas — ensured the Congress government lasted its full tenure with no change of guard. In 2007, the wheels of fortunes reversed and, despite a narrow gap on vote share, the BJP though short of a clear majority by a whisker formed government nonetheless. Internecine conflicts between factions led by Maj Gen (retd) BC Khanduri and Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank — both became chief minister — had a negative impact on image and governance. Consequently in 2012, it was the Congress’ turn to emerge ahead in terms of seats though the two parties were less than a point apart in terms of vote share. By the logic of political alteration that the state has seen, will it be the BJP’s turn this time to get a shot at government formation?

The question has become all the more significant as the Congress has been steadily rocked by desertions to the BJP with the first lot led by former chief minister Vijay Bahuguna in May last year and the latest being Tiwari. In between Rita Bahuguna Joshi abandoned ship. These crossovers may parhave secured headlines aplenty but have queered the pitch for the BJP because for every nomination handed over to an ‘outsider’, it has dashed aspirations of old-timers in the party. The Congress too has to cope with loyalists with a long face.

The Congress was riven by factionalism from 2002 with Harish Rawat wanting to be chief minister. After fulfilling his ambition in 2014, he ran the unit with an iron fist paying scant respect to internal democracy. Despite desertions, Rawat has not turned to being politically inclusive.

Moreover, the Rawat ministry survived the majority test in the assembly last year with assistance from the six-member Progressive Democratic Front comprising three independents, two MLAs from BSP and another from the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal and wishes them to continue siding with him. Rawat has already nominated a BSP MLA to contest the elections after he joined the Congress.With talk of the independents too being backed by the Congress, Rawat will have to contain further rebellion within his ranks.

Since its inception, politics of Uttarkhand has been dominated more by personalities and cults and less by issues. This time too it is no different. The BJP also faces the odd situation of having four former chief ministers in its fold and another part of it by proxy. But neither the four nor Tiwari are contesting elections and have been given clear signals that none of them should nurture chief ministerial ambitions any more. The moot point is whether any of them, Gen Khanduri, Pokhriyal, Koshiari or Bahuguna will campaign as much as the leadership wishes.

Winning the state is important for the BJP because it will also indicate endorsement of two issues that have a great draw in the state and that have been projected as major successes of the Modi regime. In terms of the population to ex-servicemen ratio, Uttarakhand is a clear leader compared to other states — UP, Punjab, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Kerala and Tamil Nadu — which also contributes in large numbers to the armed forces. This election will thus be a major test of the BJP’s claims on OROP and surgical strikes. Defeat here will be a bitterer pill for Modi to swallow, more so because it has made Brand Modi its main campaign tool.