US vote not to nuke India deal

MUMBAI: Despite the victorious sweep in the US Congressional elections of the Democrats — who are very tough on nuclear non-proliferation — the Indo-US nuclear deal may still get through unscathed.

Democrats are more protectionist than Republicans, and have in the past, protested against the migration of software and BPO jobs to India. But these protests were loudest when unemployment in the US crossed 6% in early ’00. The protest has largely disappeared now that the unemployment rate is down to 4.6%. So the election victory of the Democrats is unlikely to result in protectionist legislation.

On exempting India from NPT sanctions, the majorities have been high in both the House of Representatives and Senate. Many Democrats who raised serious objections to individual clauses in the pro-India legislation nevertheless supported the overall draft bills. So, an increase in Democratic strength in the two houses may not make a critical difference.

Second, the newly elected legislators will assume office only next January. Before that, the outgoing legislatures will hold what is called a lame-duck session later this month. But even lame ducks can pass legislation on which there is a substantial consensus.

The draft bills of the House and Senate are scheduled to go to a joint conference in order to be reconciled, and yield an agreed common draft. There is a reasonable chance that this will happen in the lame-duck session, where pro-Indian support is fairly strong.

The White House has repeatedly assured India that it will do its best to ensure that some clauses in the Senate and House drafts, which India objects to, will be removed in the final bill. However, after the election debacle, the influence of the White House will certainly diminish.

Nevertheless, anti-Bush sentiment should not translate into anti-Indian sentiment. The legislation that will emerge from the House conference will typically resolve internal differences by using ambiguous language that can be interpreted differently by different people, and thus, satisfy the honour of dissenters.

India will need to live with some ambiguities even in the best-case scenario. It remains to be seen whether the Manmohan Singh government will be able to persuade the Indian public that ambiguous language is victory. Opposition will almost certainly come from the CPM, and possibly, from some nuclear scientists.