UP polls: Make-or-break fifth phase for political parties

LUCKNOW: Forty-nine assembly seats across 13 districts could make or mar hopes in the UP contest , being the OBC-MBC-Dalit stretch where political parties have gambled everything to come up trumps.

Bundelkhand would test the wisdom of BJP’s decision to stake its probity plank by inducting BSP renegade Babu Singh Kushwaha in search of OBC votes as also to field “outsider” Uma Bharati as its star campaigner with chief ministerial projection.

The region would decide if Rahul Gandhi’s strategy to win over voters with a development package and a relentless four-year campaign among the poor can prevail over caste as the mobilizing factor while the Yadav stronghold would give a verdict on his reliance on Samajwadi rebels for winnability.

Above all, it’s the big test for Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav , who are hoping their best in areas that have been their pocket borough.The fifth phase of elections on Thursday could well be the decider in many ways given that parties turned the region—Ferozabad , Kanshiram Nagar, Etah, Mainpuri , Etawah, Auraiya, Ramabainagar , Kanpur, Jalaun, Jhansi , Lalitpur, Hamirpur and Mahoba district—into their political laboratory with eyebrow-raising experiments and daring gambits.

With reports that the first four phases of voting have given him a big lead, Mulayam would be looking to tighten his grip on the race in the home stretch of the Yadav stronghold. He lost here big in 2007, pushed out of the frame in Etah, Etawah, Mainpuri and Ferozabad by a marauding Mayawati. The hopes from this pocket in favourable elections are immense.

So are Samajwadi expectations in Bundelkhand which has long been the BSP citadel with a good population of dalits and MBCs. The party feels its positioning as an alternative to Mayawati would help it prevail over the challenge from BJP and Congress.

Being a big gamble, the BJP has used induction of Kushwaha to the hilt, employing him to mobilize his community in Bundelkhand and also using him to influence Shakyas and Mauryas in central UP. These two groups, which are in good numbers in the Yadav stronghold, have social affiliation to Kushwahas. The Uma Bharati factor has been used to neutralize the fire-breathing Kalyan Singh who is targeting Lodhs.

Observers say Kushwaha’s success would help Nitin Gadkari cement his place as a strategist. The BJP chief took the decision on his own despite its implications for the party’s campaign against the Congress on corruption. A failure, however, would raise questions.

In 2007, the BSP won 27 seats, SP 14, BJP six, Congress four and others two. But in 2009, SP won five of the 10 LS seats followed by the Congress with three, BSP one and BJP drew a blank. It translated into a lead in 22 assembly segments for SP, 10 for the Congress and nine for the BSP.

The battle is finally boiling down to which of the competing sentiments prevail in influencing the voting pattern.
The region has witnessed little development while Bundelkhand has seen the worst of water crises. The poor power situation has broken the back of smallscale industries like glassware while potato farmers have been left to fend for themselves.

However, the region, known for its rough social behaviour, has been quiet with tough police action keeping the bahubalis indoors. Observers said that in a negative wave, the region could sink the incumbent.