UP polls 2017: The war has just begun

The first of the seven phases of the Uttar Pradesh elections that concluded yesterday — in which 53% of the 2.6 crore electorate came out to vote till 4 pm — is significant for many reasons. This is the first assembly elections after the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013, in which Jats and Muslims clashed.

Both communities make up a formidable proportion of the electorate across the 15 districts in which 839 candidates were in the fray in a fourcornered slugfest.

Muslims account for a little over a fourth of the population in these districts — it goes to as high as 70% in Bijnor. Jats account for some 17% of the electorate, and it’s in this phase that the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) — which has traditionally relied largely on the Jat vote bank — has its best shot at reclaiming lost ground.

Traditional vote banks may, however, go for a toss in this neck of the woods, what with the BSP giving 31% of its seats to Muslims, and the RLD 20%.

And don’t forget that the Jats voted en masse for the BJP in the 2014 general elections. If you fancy a wager, your money — at least in this phase — is safest in your pocket.

MEERUT

Meerut City: With BJP’s former UP chief Laxmikant Bajpai, a Brahmin, as its sitting has given unpredictable facing SP’s Rafeeq Ansari while Punjabi, Pankaj Jolly.

A contestant from RLD is student leader Gyanendra Sharma. Bajpai has the advantage being a four-time MLA, SP having the only Muslim candidate may give it an edge

Meerut South: The BJP fielded Somendra Tomar, a Gujjar, who is facing BSP’s minister Yakub Qureshi. Congress has Azad Saifi, and then there is RLD’s Pappu Gujjar. If BJP is hoping for a polarisation of votes, BSP is banking on the Dalit-Muslim combine. RLD is counting on the Jat-Gujjar vote bank

Meerut Cantt: This seat has been a bastion of the BJP since 1989, it has given the ticket to its sitting MLA Satyaprakash Agarwal in this Vaish-dominated seat.

The BSP has declared a Jat candidate, Satyendra Solanki, who will be facing the Congress’ Ramesh Dhindsa. The RLD has named Sanjeev Dhama Siwalkhas: Last time the SP’s Ghulam Muhammed won due to a split in Jat votes in this otherwise RLD seat.

The RLD has again fielded Yashvir Singh, a Jat, who will be up against BJP’s Jitendra Satwai, also a Jat, and BSP’s Nadeem Chauhan Sardhana: The BJP’s Sangeet Som had won last time owing to a split in Muslim votes.

This time he is hoping to win with the help of Thakur and OBC votes. He is facing Imran Qureshi from the BSP. The SP has fielded youth leader Atul Pradhan, a Gujjar.

MUZAFFARNAGAR

Muzaffarnagar City: SP’s Gaurav Swarup is facing BJP’s Kapil Dev Agarwal, BSP’s Rakesh Sharma and RLD’s Payal Maheshwari. With the SP, BJP and RLD fielding Vaish candidates, the vote of the community is likely to split

Khatauli: This Jat-dominated seat was won by RLD’s Kartar Singh Bhadana in 2012, who is now fighting from Baghpat while Shahnawaz Rana is its candidate here. BJP has fielded Vikram Saini, one of the accused in the Muzaffarnagar riots, who will be facing Chandan Chauhan from the SP. The BSP has given the ticket to Shivaan Saini. The BSP, RLD and SP are fighting it out for Muslims votes while BJP and BSP want to corner Saini votes

Charthawal: Candidates are SP’s Mukesh Choudhary, BJP’s Vijay Kashyap, BSP’s Noor Salim Rana and RLD’s Salman Zaidi. If Choudhary is eyeing Muslim-Jat and OBC votes, BJP banks on Kashyap and other BC votes.

For the BSP, the focus is Dalit-Muslim combine and for RLD, it will be Jats and Muslims.

Budhana: The constituency was in the news after the 2013 riots, and sees a multi-cornered contest between BJP’s Umesh Tyagi, BSP’s Sayeeda Begum, wife of ex-MP Kadir Rana, SP’s Pramod Tyagi and RLD’s Yograj Singh. SP’s Navazish Alam is the sitting MLA who has now joined BSP. With RLD and BJP having Jat candidates, a split in votes looks inevitable.